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Welcomes and Farewells - Part III

The Promoted Out
A Good Riddance to Night King's White Walkers, who truly were the living dead storming down from the north, icing everyone they encountered except for their lone matchup with San Dominica. Their opponent efficiency rating was out of this world compared to everyone elses, coming in at 24 points lower than the next closest competitor. Combined with their 4th ranked efficiency rating, once San Dominica was dumped unexpectedly in the Big 8 semi-finals, there wasn't much of a chance for them to have a tough championship round (no offense, Daisy!). They find themselves in Div II.4 with a WR of 818 and a CR of 29.

The Newcomers
With two new teams in the Big 8 and four in the Great 8, here are the newcomers, in no particular order:

Super Sonics, managed by zhouzhaoxu.
World Rank: 2960
Country Rank: 143
Another "old hat" enters the fray, as Super Sonics have existed since Season 2. This is their 9th Div III trip and second round through our particular league having spent Seasons 30-38 in III.11. They have a solid 30 and under core, with Utopian Center Chas Goldsmith averaging a solid double/double for them in the last two and a half seasons. They were crowned champs of IV.6 after going undefeated and PG/SF Morris Craig finished 4th in the MVP voting.

Mindless Zombies - managed by Dee-Jay-Tee31.
World Rank: 5142
Country Rank: 240
A dead crew replacing a dead crew in the Great 8, with the Zombies (around since Season 41) making their 5th Div III trip after winning the 'ship in IV.27 on a 21-1 record, beating our old friend Mighty Moose Rockets in three games for the victory. They bring with them the #3 pick in the season 53 draft, Superstar Thomas Freeman who won the MVP trophy unanimously. We "played" together in Season 53 III.15, though neither of us were any good. Their 7'3" center Rutherford is currently listed, but if he doesn't sell, they could be quite competitive with what looks like a nice core with a mix of younger and older lads on the roster.

LionPride - managed by oriolekid.
World Rank: 1544
Country Rank: 68
oriolekid's Lions come to us after relegating from II.3 and have been in existence since Season 11, starting clear back in V.99. This will be their 12th time through Div III, but two of the three times they've relegated from Div II leagues, they immediately relegated the following season again. I'm not saying that's happening this time, but four of their top five salaried players are transfer listed, including two $100k+ big men. But Clement Holley looks fierce even though the rest of the roster appears to be lacking.

Welcomes and Farewells - Part IV

The Newcomers (cont)
Las Vegas Silver Stars - managed by Duam.
World Rank: 3480
Country Rank: 170
Joining the fray in Season 51, Las Vegas, as noted in their recent press release, "toiled" away in Div IV.12 for nine seasons making the playoffs all but their first season before finally defeating Great Lakes Rays in two games to be crowned champions. Their 20-2 record is thanks to a core of five players with $18k salary or higher, but no one appears to be a show stopper for the Silver Stars. But, they shouldn't be walkovers and should strive to be competitive, though the Big 8 was probably an unfortunate side of the standings to land on.

FR-S - managed by SRFS13.
World Rank: 6481
Country Rank: 320
FR-S signed up in Season 54 and recently relegated from III.9 before making the finals last season in IV.29 to arrive here with us. A couple of their better players are currently transfer listed, but no bites as of yet. On the surface, there doesn't appear to be much here, but I've learned not to guess how good a team is going to be (see last season's White Walkers). But again, a tad unfortunate they're on the Big 8 side of things.

BKDogs - managed by Wisdom.
World Rank: 6714
Country Rank: 332
We welcome back Wisdom and the BKDogs who we last saw in Season 59 and was one of my Maybe Next Season? predictions from my Season 60 Welcomes and Farewells post - damn I'm a smart cookie. Last season they put together a 21-1 record before losing in two games to Blu Sox in IV.30's championship round. Their roster is definitely more seasoned with a bit of an aging core, though a couple of those players are currently transfer listed and there are only 8 total players on the roster. I'd expect some movement from them before too long to bring in some new blood - what that blood looks like, only time will tell.

With transfers happening, it's hard to pull together a truly accurate preseason rankings, but I'll pull something together by Friday or so and will probably amend it before the allstar break. Best of luck to everyone and welcome to Div III.11!

Coach Pio Reina addresses the rookies and 22 and under set

Coach Pio Reina looked around the room and saw fresh faces and a few familiar faces. He wondered who would be in the locker room at the end of the season. He spoke to that immediately. This wasn’t your typical “welcome to the team” speech.

“Some of you will not be here at the end of the year. If you are, I will be surprised. Your job is to surprise me. Christophe Nguyen, surprise me. Rich McCain, show me what you’ve got. Elijah Wilson, the opportunity to carve a spot here is yours to seize. You three have the unenviable task of trying to convince me, our general manager, and everyone else that you are the future of the franchise at the point guard position. Nguyen is closest to ready for a backup role. He will be given an opportunity to try an earn it before the end of the season. McCain, your job will be to develop your skills as quickly as we can allow you; I suspect you’re not long for point guard. We’ll let you determine that. Wilson, your job is to develop as fast as you can. No guarantees for any of you to stick around. This is a hard situation for rookies, harder still for rookie point guards. Mantas, you were put in a nearly impossible situation last year and you impressed us. Build on that. You’re a guy we expect to be a significant contributor for the team.”

Pio looked at the remainder of the group in this meeting. He then gave his assessment of them to them. “Rolland, you survived a tough year for you in a difficult situation. Do it again. Reese, your defense has been nice to have around. Bring us something on offense. Bring us something on the boards. Bring us more than what you have brought so far. England, show me something to make me think you belong. Gentlemen, every one of you is 22 or younger. Mantas, Nguyen, Reese, and Roland know if you don’t play defense you don’t play. They also know the playoffs are an expectation here, and I am not one who accepts disappointment. Play defense, you’ll earn more court time. For some of you, that’s going to be increasingly hard for you to earn. Another way to earn time is to diversify your skillset. We have 4 point guards listed on this roster as of now. That’s three more than we had at the end of last season. None of you will be a regular starter this season unless you shock me or things go horribly wrong. Your job is simply to try and make the 4 deep at guard 5 deep. When you get to the full team meeting and on to the practice court, you’ll see how hard that task is. Good luck. You’ll need it.”

“Listen up and welcome back. You know what the expectation is. You know what we expect to do. That will not change. Right now, I have things I want you to work on individually. Rod, range. Also be more aggressive. We’ll figure out how to get you in spots to do that. Kyle? Range, ball security, and could you pass the ball more effectively? We’ve got plans for you, too. Shooter, defense and pass the ball. Mantas, assert yourself and be confident. You have everything you need to excel. Just keep getting better. Serkan, glad to see you’ve healed up. Keep getting better, but that passing game of yours is a priority to improve on. You’re a key to unlocking the lineup. Harrison, you pull the crap you did at the start of last season trying to live off of soft, unimportant double doubles, I’ll end you. Understood? Floyd and Ramon, I hear you guys have been already started working on things. I’m excited to see what’s next. Gentlemen, you know what the expectation is. We were one half away from a championship appearance. That was a heck of a run to end last season, but that was last season. I want to coach the league champions. You have things to work on. You do your part and I’ll do mine, and we’ll see if we can make that happen. Rookies and young guns, I told you your job is to TRY to crack the rotation. I don’t expect you to, but I expect you to try your hardest. Which means if you’re not starting, you’d better be looking over your shoulder. In some cases, the starters had better keep an eye out. You youngsters had better find a vet to mentor you. This league is a tough league and will grind you up if you don’t grow up fast. Take advantage of every chance to learn you get. It will only serve to help you and the team long term. Hatfield, you have a lot of work to get caught up to where we want you to be. Make it happen. Harrison, if I were you, I’d be nervous. McCain, I’ve heard things. Show me. I wanna see for myself. Guys, make us better. That’s your job. My job is to make you better. You doing your job makes mine easier. Me doing mine makes your job easier. We’re in this together. Let’s get to work. Together on 3! 1! 2! 3!”

“Together!”

Day 1 (Saturday 20 May 2023) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
Philly Dribble 78 - San Dominica Warriors 88
Carolina Rebels 78 - Lion Rebels 89
FR-S 87 - Linndale 109
Las Vegas Silver Stars 85 - 209’s MostWanted 98
The Beer Bellys 107 - BKDogs 119
Mindless Zombies 🧟‍♀️ 107 - Super Sonics 105
Żubr Białystok 125 - LionPride 83
Miami Cleo 88 - Tasty Tardsicles 98

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 125 : Żubr Białystok
Rebounds : 63 : 209’s MostWanted
Assists : 31 : Żubr Białystok
Steals : 11 : Linndale, Żubr Białystok
Block Shots : 8 : Las Vegas Silver Stars

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 57 : C. Holley (LionPride)
Rebounds : 22 : F. Hearn (Linndale)
Assists : 9 : É. Blanchet (San Dominica Warriors), P. Matkowski (BKDogs), T. Hok Fung (Mindless Zombies 🧟‍♀️), L. Jackson (LionPride)
Steals : 4 : T. Armstead (Lion Rebels), C. McNutt (Żubr Białystok)
Block Shots : 5 : F. Hearn (Linndale)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : T. Rumin (209’s MostWanted) (32 Points, 3 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Shooting Guard : I. Trapezanidis (FR-S) (33 Points, 4 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 33
Small Forward : C. Holley (LionPride) (57 Points, 9 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 0 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 51
Power Forward : F. Hearn (Linndale) (13 Points, 22 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 1 Steals, 5 Block Shots), I. Homs (The Beer Bellys) (36 Points, 11 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 37
Center : G. Sankoh (BKDogs) (21 Points, 19 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 37

MVP of the evening
C. Holley (LionPride) (57 Points, 9 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 0 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 51

The bad performance of the evening
R. Jacob (209’s MostWanted) (0 Points, 0 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -5

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : T. Begley (Carolina Rebels), R. Zviedris (FR-S) : 5 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : J. Bourgeois (Philly Dribble), R. Singh (Lion Rebels), P. Cheatle (Miami Cleo) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : K. Brown (Lion Rebels), W. Acevedo (Mindless Zombies 🧟‍♀️), G. Locus (Miami Cleo) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : G. Azheli (209’s MostWanted), M. Maurin (Miami Cleo) : 5 Three points

The best performer : C. Holley (LionPride) : Rating : 16.5

The worst performer : L. Jackson (LionPride) : Rating : 4.0

Season 61 [late] Preview
Well, here's the unofficial, official welcome to those of us who now reside in Div. III.11. I like to do a little write-up each week, though my real life has been pretty busy lately, so I may not get to it every week...but to start the season, here's my way to early (when really it's just a day before the season, but we know there's probably still going to be a lot of movement to come) preseason rankings. Welcome to all ye newcomers (and one re-comer). I'm obviously hoping for all of your demise and my own glory, but I'm sure that won't happen.

Last season, once again, I predicted Philly Dribble would win it all, and boy did that blow up in my face. I wouldn't have thought they'd be in a relegation matchup. Instead, the Night King's White Walkers trounced us all enroute to Div II. Carolina came on strong right at the right time only to melt into a puddle in the finals for the Big 8.

And now, for my disclaimer:

As always (or at least for the last few seasons), these predictions are based on current salary statistics for the league. Last season, I modified it, and even though I was LOUD wrong, I'm sticking with it. Previously, I ranked teams by salary designations (Total, Top 5, Top 8, Top 10, 6-10) and then assigned points for each ranking, added it up and divided by the number of rankings.

But last season, I measured each salary against the average for each category and then assigned a point value based on that. For example for Total Salary it breaks down like this for teams $100k over the league total average and for teams $100k less the league total average:

Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average+100,000 = 60 Points
Team Total Salary +100,000 < League Total Salary Average = 0 Points

We'll use this season's current salaries as examples:
- Linndale currently has a total salary number of $385,613, which is just over the league wide average of $272,979, so in that category they score 60 points.
- On the opposite end of the spectrum is FR-S, whose current total salaries are $165,590 - when we add another $100k to that, they're still less than the league average, so they score 0 points.

You then have variances for points assigned to a team based on how far they vary from the average with the above examples being the extreme.

This season I'm weighting Total Salary and Top 6-10 (bench play) the highest (range from 0-60 points), while Top 5 and Top 8 are 2nd tiered (0-30 points) and Top 10 is the lowest tier (0-15 points). Add those five category point totals and then divide by five and you have your rankings. All ties are broken by Top 6-10 rank.

If you're curious, I can provide the exact calculations, but I figure not everyone's as nerdy or interested as me so I won't bore you any more with this.

My usual disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, but I am a dork who can't get enough of this dumb game, thus my predictions. Before the ranking predictions, here are some of the highlights and lowlights of our league.

Current League Leaders in Salary
1. Linndale - $385,613. They've got 15 players rostered currently, which leaves their rank in average salary at 3rd, with Hearn making up the bulk of that, but Guyton and Knowles contribute significantly.
2. Miami Cleo - $362,137. I'm afraid this won't last as packer_22 hasn't logged in since tax day, which would be a shame. Here's hoping we don't lose one of the good ones.
3. Tasty Tardsicles - $328,732. No movement from Tards yet, with 10 rostered players making them the highest per average at $32k per player. I'd guess they would make some moves, but other than "Noodles" in February and transfering two other players, they've been pretty quiet with their roster.

Overall we're averaging $272k in salary, which is up 32k from last season, which was up 27k from the season before. Ya'll gone and lost your minds! This season eight teams are averaging less than that, with only FR-S averaging much less than the average. Żubr comes in just over $400 shy of this mark.. I'm sure there will be lots of changes to this and the rest of these categories over the course of the first few weeks.

Fab 5's
These aren't necessarily the starting 5, but instead the top 5 paid players:
1. Linndale - $303k - 79% of their total salaries
2. Miami Cleo - $264k - 73%
3. Tasty Tardsicles - $247k - 75%

Overall, the 16 teams average $194k for top 5 paid players with 5 teams averaging more than $200k and three teams averaging less than $115k. Six teams are paying more than $200k, while FR-S is the lone team spending under $100k.

Current League Leaders in Assumed Top Bench Players (Top 6-10)
1. Philly Dribble - $99k ($19.9k per player)
2. Żubr Białystok - $93k ($18.76k per player)
3. San Dominica Warriors - $88k ($17.6k per player)

Season 61 Final Ranking Predictions
Feel free to be an angry bird. And don't forget, these salary numbers have already changed, but my ability incorrectly predict these things never will!

16. FR-S - There's just not enough here for SFRS13 to do much of anything with, but only losing to Linndale by 22 points isn't terrible, kinda like Blaine Gabbert as a backup QB.

15. LionPride - Clement Holley looks like Victor Wembanyana on the Spurs' G-league team. Not looking forward to facing that, but at the moment, there's not much surrounding that guy

14. The Las Vegas Silver Stars - Not a lot separates numbers 12, 13, and 14 in my terrible rankings. I'm sure Vegas will find a way to be competitive.

13. 209's MostWanted - I was mean to them in the preseason last season too by ranking them 13th, but while they can score their defense is a liability, especially in this league (and that division).

12. BKDogs - A solid win on Saturday and the addition of Paulos Armonda gives BK a good start to the season and I've probably got them ranked WAY TOO LOW.

11. The Beer Bellys - Sticking around for another go, thatguy's group, aside from Isidre Homs and Yuce are starting to look like last season's Hustlas (old...). But Homs and Yuce are young enough to try and build around - let's see if the Keg is still standing at the end of the season.

10. Carolina Rebels - I did this last year too, and once again it's going to get me in trouble, but Carolina's 15 players total the 10th highest salary, 15th ranked in average salary, 11th in top 5, 13th in top 8, 12th in top 10, and 11th in top 6-10. They strategize and play sharply, which is how they end up making me look like I've got mud on my face.

9. Lion Rebels - Once again, my team shouldn't be ranked this high, though Kurt Brown is starting to come in to his own...I just wish he'd do away with those 1-25 from the field games.


8. Mindless Zombies - I caught the very end of the Zombies/Super Sonics game on Saturday and what a finish! Go check it out if you haven't, but a giant sigh of relief I'm certain, for the Zombies.

7. San Dominica Warriors - They say money can't buy you happiness, but have you seen a dude on a jet ski in the middle of summer? Looks like you can - anyway, regarding money, San Dom doesn't lead the way in any of these categories, but their depth is what traditionally helps them out down the stretch.

6. Żubr Białystok - whitestok's been building and now he's got a solid trio of Hatch, Grimm, and Quindos at the core that are continuing to grow. I don't know they have what it takes to go all the way this season, but they're steadily getting closer.

5. Super Sonics - To tie it up at the last second after battling so hard only to lose on a buzzer beater. Ugh - gut punch. Either way, looks like there's some stiffer competition in the Great 8 this season.

4. Philly Dribble - Last season's predicted #1 preseason team fell apart for reasons I can't understand from the outside. Even though they're getting a bit older, they're still a tough outing every game. We'll see if last season was an anomaly.

3. Tasty Tardsicles - Tasty's going with a slightly smaller lineup, but with only 10 rostered players, they still have the 3rd highest salaries for their players. They also get a boost in the top 6-10 department, which is how they end up here.

2. Linndale - This season, Linndale is ranked at the top of every category except for the top 6-10, of which they rank in the middle of the pack, just above league average. They'll be difficult, no matter where the game's played - but that's also why we play the games!

1. Miami Cleo - This isn't going to age well as I'm guessing bot-status will take over in the next week or two, which is a shame because he's done a real fine job with his top 6 players, most of which are right in their prime rig

Conference Standings
Typically, I break this part down based on my rankings, but I'm going to go ahead and suppose that Miami's prime time players are going to be replaced with the botification process, so I'll adjust accordingly in the below:
Big 8
1. Linndale
2. Philly Dribble
3. San Dominica
4. Lion Rebels
5. Carolina Rebels
6. 209's MostWanted
7. The Las Vegas Silver Stars
8. FR-S

Great 8
1. Tasty Tardsicles
2. Super Sonics
3. Żubr Białystok
4. Mindless Zombies
5. The Beer Bellys
6. BKDogs
7. LionPride
8. Miami Cleo

Playoff/Relegation Predictions
Great 8 Playoffs
Mindless Zombies vs. Tasty Tardsicles (upset!)
Żubr Białystok vs. Super Sonics

Big 8 Playoffs
Lion Rebels vs. Linndale
San Dominica vs. Philly Dribble

Great 8 Semi-Final Matchup
Mindless Zombies vs. Żubr Białystok

Big 8 Semi-Final Matchup
San Dominica vs. Linndale

Relegation Matchups
Carolina Rebels over LionPride in two
The Beer Bellys over The Las Vegas Silver Stars in three
BKDogs over 209's MostWanted in three

Season 61 Championship
San Dominica Warriors over Żubr Białystok in two.

And so, there you have it! Good luck this season and may the best team prove me wrong!

Final programming note: all of my quips and schticks are tongue in cheek meant to have a little fun.

TWO straight 4th quarter melt downs… disappointing.

Your team played a very tough game, but what you call a meltdown I'm calling my team deciding to show up in the fourth quarter.

I look forward to the rematch.