BuzzerBeater Forums

Whereas I agree that most D.V teams dont know what they are doing and you wont have a great pick any time in the near future I still disagree with E.B.W here.

To illustrate why lets say you have enough points to fully scout the draft class and find the best draftee. Furthermore, lets assume the 2 live managers in your league invest absolutely nothing into the draft and therefore all of the other 15 teams will draft randomly.

Come draft day the #1 pick has a 1 in 48 shot (or 2.08%) of drafting your prospect by pure luck. Assuming he doesnt draft him then the #2 overall pick has a 1 in 47 shot (roughly 2.12%) of drafting the player you want. Assume this continues through to the 15th pick who then has a 1 in 34 (or 2.94%) chance of stealing your pick. Obviously the chances of someone randomly drafting the best player are really low; less than 3% but when you add all of those together to determine the chance that he is drafted prior to your pick you find that it equals 36.99%.

Now, there is still an above average chance you get your guy (about 63%) but you'll need to invest a ton to find that perfect draftee and a bit of luck to ensure he's there for you to grab.

I think saving the points so you can better scout a future draft class when your pick is higher and you can lower that chance of him being drafted before your pick is the optimal strategy. In the end you have to make the call, thats the beauty of being a general manager. :)

and this is even without mentioning the crapshoot that the draft is. There are drafts that only have or two good 18 yr olds. I would continue training and investing that money in your arena. It will pay up once you promote.

You make good points but I would still take a 66% chance of getting my top rookie, then very little chance. You see, once you reach IV-III+ leagues unless you have the last pick in the draft, there is practically no point in investing at all in the draft (Unless of course your leagues draft is stacked with at least 2-3 good players). This is because once you reach D.III, the last place manager is always investing a ton in the draft and 95% of the time gets the best (and sometimes only) good draftee. You have no chance what-so-ever in higher drafts. Then in IV leagues your chances of having a good draftee slip through the first 3-4 managers goes WAY up but the chances are still very slim. Usually the only reason someone in an IV. league gets a good draftee with the 4th pick or higher is because the bottom spots are all bots. Like I stated before however, Once the Closet Men promote they will not be in relegation series in my opinion so the lowest pick that they would get is about a 7th pick, which wont get you any players AND it will be awhile before he promotes to D.III. a 66% chance of getting a star is a whole lot better than when you are higher leagues. I personally will be investing everything in my draft because i plan on having the first pick in this seasons draft (I'm 2nd to last place but every other team is better than mine because I'm rebuilding from scratch).

All the math!!
Probably only going to spend one point a week and use some and save up some points. The crazy thing is I have a lot of reserve money now and I am probably going to win almost every game I play so I will have enough money to scout and expand my arena!!

Thanks 2 injuries was just what I need. Nontheless still won and they're not long term.
Saw that 3-2 coming but still went RnG

congrats. good win

Guard based teams for the win!!!

Not in D.III

Callow 39 pts,21 rebs,5 asts,4 blks dude owns the league

Impressive but against the worst team in the league (or at least one of the worst).

On a side note another damn injury! This doc sucks and he's getting fired for sure! This is going to be a long season at this rate