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Game Shape - WTH

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This Post:
00
270505.42 in reply to 270505.39
Date: 5/22/2015 12:18:01 PM
Brutus Buckeye
II.2
Overall Posts Rated:
206206
Second Team:
The Ironmen
Yes, looks much better. The one guy got 86 minutes because my other player got injured and he ended up playing the whole game from the backup spot. But other than that its all good now.

This Post:
11
270505.45 in reply to 270505.44
Date: 5/22/2015 12:43:37 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
596596
It is quite unlikely, but I've had it happen a couple times as well over the years.
I'm sure they're moving up and down within the sublevels of level 7.

This Post:
22
270505.46 in reply to 270505.45
Date: 5/23/2015 6:36:20 AM
white snake
II.1
Overall Posts Rated:
72437243
Second Team:
Black Forest Boars
To save you some work:
Around 15 seasons ago, JosephKa and I did two independent analysises in the GS Minutes topic. After that we compared our results. We had the same... My result was that 61 minutes per week have the highest possibility for a GS 9. His result was at 60.7 minutes.
48 minutes per week almost guaranted you to have GS 8 all the time.

With the new Stamina influence these numbers should be different. A stamina 9 player should play more minutes without a penalty. If I had to guess, I would go with around 72 minutes. But to be sure there are too few numbers.

Last edited by Nachtmahr at 5/23/2015 6:36:40 AM

This Post:
11
270505.47 in reply to 270505.46
Date: 5/23/2015 4:04:58 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
596596
Thanks Nachtmahr!

I had assumed that someone had looked into this already, and I'm glad you shared this info.
Did you gather data from all around the BB universe? I've only been working with my own team's data since mid-2012.
I've stayed with four minute thresholds vs exact minutes, except for 48 and 0.

For fun, here is what I've got on those:

Starting at 7, 48 minutes is 30% likely to stay at 7, 48% likely to single pop, and 22% to double pop.
Then at 8, 48 minutes is 67% likely to keep you there, and 33% likely to pop you to 9. So, not a guarantee of being at 8 all the time, but certainly steered that way.
Then at 9, 48 minutes is 24% likely to drop you to 8, and 76% likely to keep you at 9.

For zero (interesting if one of your starters just got injured for multiple weeks), if you're at 7, 85% of the time you double drop to 5, and 15% likely to drop to 6.
If you're at 8: 57% change to double drop, and 43% chance to single drop.
If you're at 9: You will drop to 7 100% of the time. However, I don't have very many data points for that one, so I assume it's really going to be in the high 80% range.

And as you point out, I don't apply any stamina into this data, but like I mentioned, I don't carry guys with high stamina.

Iguanadon

This Post:
00
270505.48 in reply to 270505.47
Date: 5/24/2015 4:42:59 AM
white snake
II.1
Overall Posts Rated:
72437243
Second Team:
Black Forest Boars
The analizes ran for five seasons. There were around 40 Teams without a spec doc. Every week I checked the minutes and GS for the players and in the end I had my result.

This Post:
00
270505.49 in reply to 270505.48
Date: 5/24/2015 4:36:24 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
14901490
Just curious how many triple GS pops did you observe in the past? Because I just got the second on my team and I've seen a team I scouted with another case last update:
http://tinypic.com/r/29fa1br/8

Last edited by Lemonshine at 5/24/2015 4:37:45 PM

This Post:
00
270505.50 in reply to 270505.49
Date: 5/25/2015 2:30:04 PM
white snake
II.1
Overall Posts Rated:
72437243
Second Team:
Black Forest Boars
I saw two or three triple pops.
One was from 6 to 9 and the other ones were lower. Something 2 to 5 or so.

Message deleted
This Post:
00
270505.52 in reply to 270505.49
Date: 5/25/2015 2:40:59 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
596596
I've seen a total of 5 triple pops.
3 going from 5 to 8, and 2 going form 3 to 6.

Two of those were with 48 minutes played, interestingly.

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