Thanks Nachtmahr!
I had assumed that someone had looked into this already, and I'm glad you shared this info.
Did you gather data from all around the BB universe? I've only been working with my own team's data since mid-2012.
I've stayed with four minute thresholds vs exact minutes, except for 48 and 0.
For fun, here is what I've got on those:
Starting at 7, 48 minutes is 30% likely to stay at 7, 48% likely to single pop, and 22% to double pop.
Then at 8, 48 minutes is 67% likely to keep you there, and 33% likely to pop you to 9. So, not a guarantee of being at 8 all the time, but certainly steered that way.
Then at 9, 48 minutes is 24% likely to drop you to 8, and 76% likely to keep you at 9.
For zero (interesting if one of your starters just got injured for multiple weeks), if you're at 7, 85% of the time you double drop to 5, and 15% likely to drop to 6.
If you're at 8: 57% change to double drop, and 43% chance to single drop.
If you're at 9: You will drop to 7 100% of the time. However, I don't have very many data points for that one, so I assume it's really going to be in the high 80% range.
And as you point out, I don't apply any stamina into this data, but like I mentioned, I don't carry guys with high stamina.
Iguanadon