You make good points but I would still take a 66% chance of getting my top rookie, then very little chance. You see, once you reach IV-III+ leagues unless you have the last pick in the draft, there is practically no point in investing at all in the draft (Unless of course your leagues draft is stacked with at least 2-3 good players). This is because once you reach D.III, the last place manager is always investing a ton in the draft and 95% of the time gets the best (and sometimes only) good draftee. You have no chance what-so-ever in higher drafts. Then in IV leagues your chances of having a good draftee slip through the first 3-4 managers goes WAY up but the chances are still very slim. Usually the only reason someone in an IV. league gets a good draftee with the 4th pick or higher is because the bottom spots are all bots. Like I stated before however, Once the Closet Men promote they will not be in relegation series in my opinion so the lowest pick that they would get is about a 7th pick, which wont get you any players AND it will be awhile before he promotes to D.III. a 66% chance of getting a star is a whole lot better than when you are higher leagues. I personally will be investing everything in my draft because i plan on having the first pick in this seasons draft (I'm 2nd to last place but every other team is better than mine because I'm rebuilding from scratch).
Murray/Harris/MPJ/Grant/Jokic - 2020 NBA Champs