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Türkiye vs England 99-85 (67095)

Another comfortable win, easier than expected, considering they guessed that we were gonna play outside. But their choice to play 1-3-1 zone didn't pay off, since we had many offensive rebounds because of it.

Cem Ötügen was called up for today's match, and even though he's 32yo, this was his first game for Turkey national team. And what a game for him it was! He played the game of his life, and was the MVP of the match with 29 points!

Group standings after the 2nd round:

1) Italia	2:0  +92
2) Deutschland	2:0  +85
3) Türkiye	2:0  +36
4) England	1:1  +36
5) Makedonija	1:1  -2
6) Schweiz	0:2  -66
7) Ísland	0:2  -109
8) Luxembourg	0:2  -72

As expected, we're gonna be battling against Italy and Germany for the first two spots in the group, and our next two games are against them. If we lose both games, the chances of us being in the top two positions would be really low, so we'll have to win one of those games. We play against Italy first, more about that game during the weekend.

Our next opponent is Italy, 5th in the world rankings, and one of the strongest bb nations. They've won the European championship 4 times, last one was in season 51. In seasons 53, 55, 57, they've won bronze medals. There's no doubt that they'll try to win another gold this season.

Italy will be the favorites in tomorrow's match, but they aren't unbeatable. Our players are ready, and will give their all to win. Winning would put us in a great position to qualify for the second phase, while losing would mean that we would have to win against Germany.

For this match, we will finally be able to count on Semih Oluk (47577115), who's the 12th player that was invited to the national team this season. Once again, the game shape of our players is great, and I give my thanks to all the managers for providing them with good weekly minutes!

21:05 Türkiye vs Italia

Türkiye vs Italia 92-98 (67100)

A very narrow defeat against Italy. The game was very close until the last seconds, but in the end, they were a tiny bit better. Two main reasons for the loss are:

1. Rebounding. Italy destroyed us in rebounding in today's game. When I saw the line-ups, I knew that they would have advantage in rebounding, both of their centers have high rebounding, but the main difference was that their SF is a world-class player with great rebounding as well. Still, to have 18 more offensive rebounds than us is perhaps a bit unrealistic. Our centers had better game shape than theirs, and our guards all have high rebounding. Their guard Caneva has RB 6, less than any of our guards, but he still had 2 offensive rebounds, while our starting guards combined had 0 offensive rebounds. A bit weird, but we have to accept it.

2. Fouls. Some of our key players tend to foul a lot, and there's not much that can be done about it. For those players, zones can help a bit, since players usually make less fouls in a zone, but today that wasn't the case. We didn't foul a lot in the previous 2 games, but against Italy, everyone was fouling more than usual. They scored 27 points from a free throw line (20 in the first half), and we made 25 fouls, while they only made 13.

Overall, this was a game where we didn't have much to lose, since Italy were a favorite, but we could've gained a lot if we had won. Still, I'm disappointed that we lost, because I feel like if we played 4 games with the same tactics and line-ups, we would have won 3. The difference in offensive rebounds (7 vs 25), and fouls (25 vs 13) isn't realistic. Sure, they had slightly better rebounders in the game, but not by that much, and our players tend to foul a bit more than theirs, but not by that much.

Perhaps I'm wrong, maybe they would have beaten us every time if we played the same tactics, but to me it seemed like we were just unlucky today. Of course, there's definitely things that I could have done better tactically, and perhaps Motion or Princeton would have been a better option for today's match, than Run and Gun.

Group standings after the 3rd round:

1) Deutschland	3:0  +157
2) Italia	3:0  +98
3) England	2:1  +82
4) Türkiye	2:1  +30
5) Makedonija	1:2  -11
6) Schweiz	1:2  -57
7) Luxembourg	0:3  -118
8) Ísland	0:3  -181

Germany's point difference is great since they already played against the weakest teams in our group – Island & Luxembourg. Our next match is against them, and it's gonna be a key match for us. Losing will mean we will have very little chance to qualify for the second phase, while winning would put us in a pretty good position, since our last 3 matches are against the 3 weakest nations in our group.

Great effort from the team, and I'm loving these summaries and analyses about the matches! I enjoy reading them and thanks to that I get more into NT stuff.

After 2 wins and 1 loss, we are facing Germany, a game which we have to win. From the beginning it was evident that the winner of our match would most likely qualify for the second phase.

Germany had quite a bit of success in the early days of BB, winning 6 medals in the first 15 seasons. However, between seasons 16-50, Germany didn't win a single medal. In the last decade, they've regained their old success, winning 4 medals between seasons 51-58, and they are looking to continue with the good results.

However, I don't think that there's too much difference in strength between us. This should be another tight match, where little things will decide the winner.

Sadly, we still can't count on Muzaffer Murat Bingün (46648773), as his form is still low despite receiving perfect minutes last week. It's a big hit for us to play without him so far, since Bingün is a player with the most skill points out of all of our players, and he's arguably the best Turkish player.

Our other players continue to have good game shape, which is great. The only one with poor game shape this week is Kayahan Miran, so another player has been called – Renan Faruk (48189081). Tomorrow will be his first game for the national team, and he's looking forward to make his debut!

21:05 Türkiye vs Deutschland

It is disappointing that we are missing Bingün. We started well and we hope it goes better, good luck coach.

Türkiye vs Deutschland 97-117 (67102)

A defeat that's the result of a complete tactical failure on my part. The winner was decided early on, considering that there's no way we could've win with a double missed gdp.

So far, I couldn't talk too much about our team, without revealing stuff to our opponents. But considering that we've already played against 4 strongest nations from our group, and that the remaining 3 games are against easy opponents, I think it's fine if I explain my decisions in these 4 games.

First of all – Bingün. Without him, it's very difficult to play man to man defense and inside oriented offenses, since he's a key player for those tactics. Our best guards aren't as good in man to man defense as the players from other top nations, which is why I chose to play 3-2 zone in our first 3 games, in order to cover up their defensive flaws.

Considering that Bingün wasn't the only one with poor game shape, but our key inside players - Oluk (47577115) and Soral (46649612), also had poor game shape at the start of the season, I thought we were limited in our first 3 games to either play outside or neutral tactics.

For the games against Macedonia and England, I chose to play Run & Gun, as I thought that was our strongest offense considering our game shape. For the game against Italy, I was contemplating on switching to play Look Inside, but since Bingün and Soral still had game shape 7, and Oluk was in 8, I decided to play outside again, thinking that Italy probably won't try to guess gdp. However, they did put very strong defenders outside.

Finally, for our game against Germany, I wasn't brave enough to play outside for the 4th time in a row. I thought that Germany will do the same as Italy, and put strong defenders outside, and I was even considering that they may play a 3-2 zone. Even though Bingün and Soral still had game shape 7, at least Oluk was in 9, so I thought it was somewhat possible to play Look Inside. I was certain that they won't guess inside gdp, so even without Bingün and Soral, I thought that our offense would function well.

But the problem was our defense. I ruled out playing 3-2 zone again, since 3-2 zone requires good shot blockers, but I didn't wanna play Look Inside with 2 defensive centers. So I was thinking between man to man and 2-3 zone. After scouting the German team, I thought that they would most likely play inside. Two very important players for their outside tactics were in game shape 7: Maiwald (45679221) & Bohnsack (46668682). And, considering that we played 3-2 zone until now, I ruled out that they will play outside. Since I didn't guess any gdp so far, I thought that they won't try to avoid being predicted, and will play inside. Their coach played inside oriented tactics with German NT 46 times in official matches, 35/46 he played Look Inside, and 11/46 he played Low Post. So when he played inside, ¾ times he would play Look Inside, which is why I tried to guess the entire Look Inside, including tempo.

Of course, that was a mistake. Our team that played today is great at defending against inside oriented tactics, but terrible at defending any other tactics. It was a risk that I was willing to take, but it didn't pay off. Germany has the same NT coach since season 51, and in 100 official games, he only played Patient 1 time, against Senegal in season 54, so honestly I didn't even consider that they would play Patient. Congrats to him, he was a smarter coach today.

I decided to call Tanridag (46649843) and Bingün (46648773) for today's match. Even though Bingün's game shape was 7, I wanted him to at least be a backup in case of injuries, and considering that Oluk was injured early on in the game, he did play some minutes.

With today's loss we don't stand much of a chance to qualify for the second phase. Germany and Italy have yet to play against each other, and against England and Macedonia, so there is still a small chance that one of them will lose 2 matches, but it's not realistic.

Group standings after the 4rd round:

1) Deutschland	4:0  +177
2) Italia	4:0  +148
3) England	3:1  +99
4) Makedonija	2:2  +22
5) Türkiye	2:2  +10
6) Schweiz	1:3  -74
7) Luxembourg	0:4  -168
8) Ísland	0:4  -214

Next Monday we will finally play against an easy opponent - Island. We should be able to win our last 3 games since we're playing against Island, Sweiss, and Luxembourg. All we can do now is try to improve our point difference as much as we can in those matches, and hope that Germany or Italy will slip up against England or Macedonia.

Next up is Island. Macedonia won against them +33 (67103), England won against them +50 (67091), Italy won against them +59 (67094), and Germany won against them +72 (67097). We'll try to win with an even bigger margin.

Finally, Ali Arif Soral (46649612) has a good game shape so he's been invited, and with Bingün in game shape 9, we will be playing with our strongest squad for the first time this season.

There's not much to say about Island, they only have 14 active teams, and are one of the weakest teams in Europe.

21:05 Türkiye vs Island

Türkiye vs Island 132-56 (67108)

We've won by 76 points, which is good. We've managed to improve our point difference a lot with this match, and we will continue to do so in the last two matches.

Group standings after the 4rd round:

1) Deutschland	5:0  +201
2) Italia	4:1  +124
3) England	4:1  +109
4) Türkiye	3:2  +86
5) Makedonija	2:3  +13
6) Schweiz	1:4  -78
7) Luxembourg	1:4  -168
8) Ísland	0:5  -290

Germany managed to win against Italy with a double guessed gdp (67105), so Germany will almost certainly end up 1st in our group. The second place will be decided between Italy, England, and Türkiye.

These are the match-ups next monday:

Türkiye vs Schweiz
Deutschland vs England
Italia vs Makedonija
Luxembourg vs Ísland

For us to qualify second, I suppose England must defeat Italy and they must lose against Germany. Then all teams will have 2 losses, average will be key. Hope's still there!