For reference, remember 4/16=25% of teams demote every season, and so a guess of 25% would mean that newly promoted teams were just as likely as the average D1 team to demote. I would posit that the ideal percentage should be higher than that... but how much higher is an open question.. what do you think?
I don't think that (using BB-Charles terminology) there should be any programmer's intervention to alter this percentage: the best teams win and the best teams stay in the division or they are promoted. I just demoted because I was the worst team in my conference (that, by the way, was way stronger than the other, but that's another story, although a relevant one). Demotion should not be a dramatic event: the manager just made an experience of what it means to play in a higher division and should have a clear idea on how to improve his/her own team to get back and stay there.
My point is that a demoted team is being overly punished for trying to make it to a higher division, because the programmer's intervention on demoted team is simply excessive:
- fans are reduced to one half or even less; their satisfaction in the new season will never be 5 balls simply because of the last season; they will increase but I seriously doubt I will be able to exploit the size of my arena (that was moderately expanded to exploit the opportunity of being a higher division);
- if it's not the end of the month you don't have the opportunity to lower ticket prices, which further increases the fans problem: they are unhappy and they have to pay prices that would be reasonable only for a higher division;
- merchandising does not only drop on the first week in the lower division, but even in the second week after a row of 4 wins, one of which against my rival team (please note that I did not dismantle my team: in overall my salaries have increased slightly); we'll see if this week the drop will stop after 7 wins in a row.
All the above means of income reduction (I didn't mention TV rights) are reasonable in their motivation, I just say that they are excessive when aggregated. While fans of a team that is going to demote are easily calmed by a win or two, when you are demoted they simply disappear and they do not come back just as quickly. In this way demotion becomes a nightmare since it is extremely hard to keep a competitive team while not being at a constant loss.
I think that you should gather another information about users' behaviour: how many of them leave the game after a demotion?