Based on my limited information, you appear to have an excellent shot.
One of the advantages you'll have is you can likely play normal in the first 2 rounds of your playoffs while the 2 top teams in the other division may have to play crunch to advance to the finals. That will give you a slight enthusiasm edge for the finals where you'll likely be playing 2 road games. You also keep better gameshape then they do.
At the same time, if you can afford to add one more star player to your rotation that's only going to increase your odds. And you're close enough where that would be a good risk.