BuzzerBeater Forums

There are some interesting topics in this picture.

First of all, 92% win rate in simulation and lost 15 points in reality, the randomness played a role of 43 points PD, is it a normal distribution? What's the statistic confidence?

Second, I had expressed such opinion that randomness was too much nowadays, we are playing manager game instead of rolling a dice, we can't allow a few years efforts to be so easily and strongly affected by random factors.

Third, as the OP proposed, if huge randomness continues, I suggest BBs expose the win rate of the game so that everyone can access it, then we have better analysis of the game.

In the end, I have some thoughts about what's good randomness. Randomness is key to remain suspense for weaker teams. Each shot is determined by randomness but the accumulated randomness needs to be under control. 43 PD for a 100 points game is too much and I think 20 PD max is acceptable. Better randomness adjusts itself by doing negative feedback regulation to make the game random but under control overall.

Second, I had expressed such opinion that randomness was too much nowadays, we are playing manager game instead of rolling a dice, we can't allow a few years efforts to be so easily and strongly affected by random factors.

I agree that a little less randomness would be nice, but this 43 PD was most likely across hundreds and hundreds of simulations, and the 92% win rate sound about right for a team 12 points better. I think it would be more interesting to find what the range is of the middle 95 or 97%.

When just looking at the range of all simulations you are going to have outliers from games where one of your best players got injured in the 1st minute (happened to me in BBM) or where you had multiple unlucky foul outs. So I'm not too concerned with seeing that number without further context as to the distribution of the scores.

outliers from games where one of your best players got injured in the 1st minute

I agree under such condition you are definitely unlucky. But still, negative feedback should help reduce the impact of randomness. For example,
the GE may calculate in the beginning which team has more skills advantage and even if injury happens, the rest of the players have some boost because the injured player inspired them.

Back to the example of the picture, the team with 92%+ win rate had no foul out or injuries in that game, so I can blame all the bad luck to the randomness of shot FG.

what are you trying to express?

In that game, no foul out or injuries, so in that game, randomness of shots play the job of randomness, which infers that randomness of shots can be huge.

Last edited by Djstra at 7/26/2022 11:57:31 AM

I think that type of information can be interesting if it's done for a couple of big games per season, like the B3 Final and World Cup Final. But when it's used it should be publically and in a consistent way, it shouldn't be provided on an ad-hoc basis.

It is just a fun tool that mainly focuses on showing the randomness of the GE, there's not much to learn from it, besides learning how "lucky" you got this time, it means nothing for the next time.

I think you can learn something from it.

For example this post (313659.10) regarding this game (119334645). Without BB-Justin's post a lot of managers would go away thinking that team were unlucky, when actually it seems the losing team might have been the weaker team after all. The same happens if win-rates and PD are provided, information is revealed. That's not always a bad thing of course, from what I've seen of Justin's forum posts he tends to find a careful balance. But if this tool is being used on request (I couldn't tell from OP if this is a one-off situation) then it is giving information to specific managers.

I think that type of information can be interesting if it's done for a couple of big games per season, like the B3 Final and World Cup Final. But when it's used it should be publically and in a consistent way, it shouldn't be provided on an ad-hoc basis.

I agree that it is more than how lucky you are, there is a lot to learn from it. I would also suggest if it is shared, it better to be done publicly. But I will say, if I won a big game like B3 finals, it would take away from the joy to hear it was just a statistical anomaly and the better team lost. Maybe if you are sharing information like this, to do it well after the game?

On the subject of randomness, there are so many games ridiculous games must happen every day there are games. Yes it sucks if you're on the wrong end of it, but it is an almost definite mathematical certainty that someone, and probably quite a few people, will have what they consider horrific bad luck.

And it is right that this should be so.