There's two problems jfriske (and I say this as a fairly ardent supporter of the 2-3):
(2) Even if we assume that a 2-3 can work, we don't have the personnel for it. We did a lot of testing of variations of it in scrimmages this season, and in all the metrics we checked (not just final score), it was miserable. Maybe that means it can't work, or maybe it means we don't have the players for it. But in either case, it doesn't seem to work for us. And with so few people on BB believing it could work, there's very little movement towards training the "right" sort of players.
I guess this is my whole point though. We think we know how it works, we look at our roster and suspect we don't have the right sort of personnel based on our interpretation of how 2-3 works, and when we run some tests scrimmages we get poor results. Why is that at all discouraging? It would be more confusing if it DID work for us somehow.
I'm not trying to say we should be running a 2-3 in meaningful games right now, I'm saying we should be making a concerted effort from the top down to encourage training of skill sets we think would play well in a 2-3, so that we do have that weapon in our arsenal several seasons from now.
As far as the balance between open vs. contested shots, that's a great point and always a huge consideration, and I understand that in general giving up flow to your opponent usually results in giving up more uncontested shots. Intuitively though shouldn't a 2-3 zone that packs everybody inside the arc contest more of everything except 3pter's? With somebody always around the ball, and the OD and SB nuances suggested by your data, wouldn't we actually expect more contested shots (including jumpers)?
That may not have been born out in the data (I didn't see anything in any of the blog posts re: contested vs. assisted based on defense) or our scrimmages, but it's easy to argue that is because those examples involve guys without the skills to succeed at what we're asking of them. I guess my point is that less pressure on the PG/entry pass may not necessarily mean more assisted/uncontested shots, even if that has historically been the case.
If we think we know something important about how to use a tactic that seems custom made to neutralize the game's most popular current tactic (LI), I think we should embrace that and commit our NT to the long term development of players who can help us take advantage of our information. It's not information that should change our in-game tactics this season, it's information that provides an opportunity to redirect our NT training for multiple future seasons.
I think the risk side of the risk/reward equation is why people are gun-shy about committing to training something that hasn't been proven yet (since it could embarrassingly fail), but really what is the risk: that we don't win worlds? I think we're already starting to understand that we even with good coaching, GS, community involvement, and training we still aren't a big enough community to use traditional approaches to just steamroll through some of our larger, better organized foreign competition, so I'm not sure we would really be risking all that much by taking some calculated risks based on good data and analysis.
We have some valuable insights from the mountains of data you guys have been able to acquire. My position is that the best way for the NT to make use of it is a BB version of the Manhattan-project :) Otherwise we will just be using the data to explain why some other country's 2-3 works so well a half dozen seasons from now.
Last edited by J-Slo at 8/24/2012 8:34:11 AM