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Tough season, I consistently promote without much of a plan after being excited to get out of D2. At this point just hoping to demote to II.2 so I can shoot for a title in all 4 divisions, but maybe have to go down to III to rebuild some money. I've been able to save this season while trying but a 3 week injury last night was the nail in the coffin. At least I got 2-3 wins closer to the exclusive 100 club... right?

It is almost Halloween, and so the Hipsterbears put up their Halloween act, and come back from the almost dead. Their away win @ Big Gulp that messes up Big Gulp's season and mine. Štefan could not be denied blowing through 127 pp100 and exploding for 27 massive points. Hard to say what Big Gulp could have done different. I'd say Aboki's 8-23 was a bit unlucky given the pp100, but, you know, there is history there. They did TIE vs. the away normal, but hard to say that's a mistake without thinking about their season as a whole, which I don't have time to do.

But the Hipsterbears show of mental strength was marred by the terrible news of another long term injury, this time to their long-time SF Lin-Fat. This one will hurt.

On the topic of costly home normals, the Orchestra followed up their away normal at my arena, with a home TIE. End result, they still end the week with 1 win, they just messed up my BB-life a bit more. Flashover had the mental strength to go 1-3-1 (I was too chicken), and that's the right defense here. They also had their own epic performance from Sikes. In G's honor's I run it through his match analyzer, and it's a beauty:

Kristofer Sikes: 3-5 (2-2) Jumpers... 1-4 (5-5) Drives... 1-2 (4-7) Inside... 0-3 (0-0) Threes

So other than some hot potato threes, the guy could not be stopped.

I'd hoped for Visionaries' run to end, when I saw that EBW was challenging them. EBW could probably have won the game, but it ended up as the third home TIE vs. away normal game of the week that went to the away normal. Kang did Kang things, just in time for the Allstar voters to see. (Just kidding, they will do something stupid like give the starting spot to Vilja.)

I'd hoped for Visionaries' run to end, when I saw that EBW was challenging them. EBW could probably have won the game, but it ended up as the third home TIE vs. away normal game of the week that went to the away normal. Kang did Kang things, just in time for the Allstar voters to see. (Just kidding, they will do something stupid like give the starting spot to Vilja.)

I think it's the first time this season I've been trailing in the 4th? I knew it was gonna be a tough one with my roster moves and Cup juggling.

I'm hoping to get a bunch of all-stars but I'm pretty sure it's very counting-stats based so who knows. A funny consequence of lots of one-sided games is ridiculously high ratings for my best players, but very few "league top 10" in categories that matter.

Kang: #1 USA Rating, #7 World.
Taylor: #2 USA Rating, #8 World.
Yang: #3 USA Rating, #38 World. Needs some more stamina pops. My only player on the league boards at #5 for assists per game
Ott: #6 USA Rating, #148 World. and this guy isn't really very good!
Henderson: #18 USA Rating, #678 World. and I bought an upgrade for him since obviously that gap was too big

In my auto promo season last season I was undefeated at the ASG, but I still had some top players not be starters in the ASG because some doofus had higher counting stats.

Don't be disrespecting Vilja, one of the best 117k I have ever spent in this game!

I'm not disrespecting him, I'm disrespecting the ASG algorithm and how it's based on counting stats. (Though in fact it's possible that your win % is so far from Peluin's that it's gonna be offset: I can't say I've seen such a slanted league situation before!)

yeah, I won't be surprised for all Peluin's starters to be on the all star team given their record. But damn...I just want to cruise in NBBA like I always do but these newcomers (including you!) are making it hard this season!

Day 13 (Saturday 2 November 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
High Point Heroes 49 - Black Light 129
Splash Gang 126 - Flashover 53
The Orchestra 83 - Beware of Dogs 69
Sofuegg 77 - HipsterBears 115
Big Gulp Reincarnated 69 - Visionaries 80
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 85 - Deronimo 93
The White Walkers 95 - Rhino’s Rage 100
southpaw army 131 - Warroad 42

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 131 : southpaw army
Rebounds : 64 : southpaw army
Assists : 41 : southpaw army
Steals : 12 : The Orchestra
Block Shots : 13 : Black Light, Splash Gang, southpaw army

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 42 : C. Cabasés (HipsterBears)
Rebounds : 19 : T. Ying Yung (Rhino’s Rage)
Assists : 12 : R. Faryna (The White Walkers), X. McNair (southpaw army)
Steals : 5 : G. Žaltkauskas (Rhino’s Rage)
Block Shots : 7 : D. Mathews (Warroad)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : C. Cabasés (HipsterBears) (42 Points, 2 Rebounds, 9 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 44
Shooting Guard : R. Richey (southpaw army) (30 Points, 3 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Small Forward : B. Dowell (ExplosiveBubbleWrap) (31 Points, 4 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 27
Power Forward : B. Sledz (southpaw army) (27 Points, 17 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 42
Center : L. Quanfu (Black Light) (21 Points, 18 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 38

MVP of the evening
C. Cabasés (HipsterBears) (42 Points, 2 Rebounds, 9 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 44

The bad performance of the evening
C. Sechi-Johnson (Warroad) (9 Points, 1 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -11

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : C. Cámpoy (Flashover) : 9 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : I. Polichronopoulos (Big Gulp Reincarnated) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : E. Cullen (High Point Heroes), D. Pulliam (High Point Heroes), S. Jeremy (High Point Heroes), C. Cámpoy (Flashover), R. De Martini (Flashover), C. Dan (Flashover), W. Chen (Flashover), P. Koon Wai (Flashover), M. Jorquera (Sofuegg), V. Khanyuk (Sofuegg), M. Lange (Warroad), C. Staley (Warroad) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : C. Cabasés (HipsterBears) : 5 Three points

The best performer : B. Kang (Visionaries) : Rating : 21.5

The worst performer : G. Whitlock (Warroad) : Rating : 1.5

I skipped a game's recap because I was focusing on other things. Let me catch you up. The cup is now in the NBBA clusterfuck stage. The all star game came and went: the Great 8 pummeled the Big 8, then motioned for the team to be renamed the "Visionaries with some cameos". My boy Vaupotic won the 3 point competition because he knows that the moneyballs are worth more.

But let's get to today. As you know I'm a stingy mofo when it comes to normaling. There needs to be a very good reason and a good game plan to justify it. Today's decision to normal southpaw army was then the result of much agonizing, but once I made it, I started hatching a plan that I thought would work. Little did I know that my guy Quanfu chose to tank the game into the gutter, because he's sulking that I'm selling him tomorrow. I bought this guy in my first week after coming back to the game. Grew him into a formidable d.II level PF. He is the all time top scorer for my team by a mile, he is the top rebounder, and the top assistman. But tonight, he decided to sink us with a 1-10 stinker and 6 completely gratuitous fouls. So this is an ugly divorce. May he go for an absurd price tomorrow, and may he go to a team that doesn't value him.

The game, though, was a thing of beauty. The teams pushed the ball at each other and in true NBBA style they put up a clanker-fest for the ages. Southpaw left Nørgård on the bench, but in his limited minutes he did a ton of damage, especially when paired with fellow twin tower Dramic. A win for us would have changed the dynamic of the relegation race, as is we're still one win behind where we need to be.

One more thing happened today that does change that relegation race as well. Inexplicably, High Point Heroes punted a home game against Flashover. Whatever the reason, Flashover now gets an away win that offsets the fact that they have 3 home games in the final stretch.

In another game that was close for a long time, Deronimo falls at Big Gulp despite extra effort. Big Gulp's starters brought it tonight, especially the American trio, but the bench wasted some of their work. In the end they hung on, after pulling away in the fourth.

The Orchestra blows out Hipsterbears behind a big team shooting performance.

Everyone else is a punted blowout.




Last edited by Coco at 11/9/2024 10:21:48 PM

Day 14 (Saturday 9 November 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
Flashover 116 - High Point Heroes 51
Beware of Dogs 36 - Splash Gang 104
HipsterBears 91 - The Orchestra 125
Visionaries 111 - Sofuegg 79
Deronimo 95 - Big Gulp Reincarnated 106
Rhino’s Rage 30 - ExplosiveBubbleWrap 123
Warroad 37 - The White Walkers 123
Black Light 99 - southpaw army 103

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 125 : The Orchestra
Rebounds : 73 : ExplosiveBubbleWrap
Assists : 37 : The White Walkers
Steals : 12 : Splash Gang
Block Shots : 16 : ExplosiveBubbleWrap

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 37 : K. Sikes (Flashover)
Rebounds : 25 : M. Cornwell (ExplosiveBubbleWrap)
Assists : 12 : X. McNair (southpaw army)
Steals : 4 : A. Fornos (The White Walkers)
Block Shots : 9 : M. Cornwell (ExplosiveBubbleWrap)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : A. Fornos (The White Walkers) (19 Points, 6 Rebounds, 10 Assists, 4 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 37
Shooting Guard : S. Vilja (Flashover) (31 Points, 5 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 34
Small Forward : K. Sikes (Flashover) (37 Points, 5 Rebounds, 8 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 43
Power Forward : R. Mullins (The Orchestra) (20 Points, 11 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 0 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 27
Center : M. Cornwell (ExplosiveBubbleWrap) (32 Points, 25 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 9 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 60

MVP of the evening
M. Cornwell (ExplosiveBubbleWrap) (32 Points, 25 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 9 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 60

The bad performance of the evening
L. Holbrook (Beware of Dogs) (2 Points, 6 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -13

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : D. Raga (Beware of Dogs), D. Mathews (Warroad) : 6 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : L. Quanfu (Black Light) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : E. Cullen (High Point Heroes), H. Oehlenschläger (Beware of Dogs), D. Raga (Beware of Dogs), B. Dunning (Beware of Dogs), S. Ashville (Beware of Dogs), L. Holbrook (Beware of Dogs), M. Jorquera (Sofuegg), V. Khanyuk (Sofuegg), I. Polichronopoulos (Big Gulp Reincarnated), M. Cornwell (ExplosiveBubbleWrap), G. Žaltkauskas (Rhino’s Rage), M. Lange (Warroad), C. Staley (Warroad) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : S. Vilja (Flashover) : 7 Three points

The best performer : M. Giannoni (Splash Gang) : Rating : 21.0

The worst performer : C. Dupouy (Rhino’s Rage), J. Schilling (Rhino’s Rage) : Rating : 0.5

We're done with the interconference round. So time to mix it up a little. I went to every game and gave it a score from [0, 0.25, 5, .75 1] -- my coarse approximation of probability of win by the home team. I've done it in a couple stages and I'm not sure I tallied it up correctly, so I may have to fix it, but here is where my expectation is at of how many wins each team will accumulate at the end of the season.

Splash 15.25
White Walkers 14.25
Southpaw army 14
The Orchestra 12.25
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 11
Big Gulp Reincarnated 11
High Point Heroes 8.75
Sofuegg 0

Visionaries 20.5
Rhino’s Rage 12
Deronimo 11.25
Flashover 11.25
Beware of Dogs 11
Black Light 10.75
Warroad 9
Hipsterbears 5.75

My notable Great 8 qualitative predictions: (i) the Visionaries streak is likely to come to an end; (ii) Rhino's Rage will nab the second seed (iii) Hipsterbears is toast (iv) We are probably landing in 6th place, unless we win one of our difficult games.

My notable Big 8 qualitative predictions: today's ranking is likely to be the same as on the last day of the season, with the exception that I expect Splash Gang to have a bit more separation. (This is partly predicated on them being underdogs in the cup game).

Post your predictions and I'll score us by the Brier Rule (for each team, the square of the distance between the predicted value and the observed value; lower is better.)





Last edited by Coco at 11/12/2024 10:58:05 PM