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B3

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This Post:
00
315008.68 in reply to 315008.67
Date: 2/2/2023 11:40:40 AM
Folgado Lakers
IV.32
Overall Posts Rated:
43304330
Second Team:
Folgado Lakers II
248 od 250 with full missed GDP? Or what? What would have happened if he had not predicted anything?

Without the bad predictions the % of win for DLR decreases from 99 to 89% (official source)


This is really surprising...

Why? It seems logical to me that your win % is better when your opponent fails in his predictions...


What is surprising for me is that he already had an 89% victory change without GDPs missed. I would have expected something like 50-60% and GDPs to have a much greater impact on the average simulation.

This Post:
11
315008.70 in reply to 315008.69
Date: 2/2/2023 12:19:24 PM
Venomous Vicious Vipers
Pro A
Overall Posts Rated:
930930
Second Team:
Veni Vidi Vicious
And the 10% difference can also be seen from Tuoki's point of view. He would have been about 11 times more likely to win without those missed GDPs :)

This Post:
00
315008.73 in reply to 315008.64
Date: 2/2/2023 1:14:25 PM
El Lobo-Lu Jujeño
LNA
Overall Posts Rated:
4040
Wow! Maybe a 5% less for each bad prediction.

And what about if your official source can tell (but maybe it's a lot of questions!), what if Tuoki made (both) good predictions?

This Post:
77
315008.77 in reply to 315008.64
Date: 2/2/2023 3:36:26 PM
Młoty Stargard
PLK
Overall Posts Rated:
838838
248 od 250 with full missed GDP? Or what? What would have happened if he had not predicted anything?
Without the bad predictions the % of win for DLR decreases from 99 to 89% (official source)

the random factor is too big (just my opinion) because we already have
random skill drops
random injury
random gameshape
enough

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