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The usual OMG how did I lose that thread.... (thread closed)

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From: Mannen
This Post:
00
14900.682 in reply to 14900.681
Date: 10/11/2009 6:48:49 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
7575
Ok, let´s see if i can get some feedback here.
In the following game i did pretty bad: (15534360)

I know i was the away team and that he put more into the game, but:
1. as far as I know, this is weighted in the points per 100 shots
2. I had 71 shots with more than 113 points per 100 shots probability
3. He had 50 with more than 106 points per 100 shots probability
4. All other shots in the game had a probability of less than 83 pp100 shots
5. I had more shots in total than my opponent

So my question is pretty much, was the loss just bad luck or have I missed/misunderstood something?

/Mannen
Message deleted
This Post:
00
14900.684 in reply to 14900.682
Date: 10/13/2009 12:28:26 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
155155


So my question is pretty much, was the loss just bad luck or have I missed/misunderstood something?


I would say that it was not bad luck since he beat you in the first 3 quarters. The 4th quarter was garbage time.

Be careful of game ratings and points per 100 shot ratings whenever there is garbage time. Your pts per 100 are inflated slightly because of it and his pts per 100 is also lower. It gives you a clear picture of the whole game. However, to know why you lost, you would need an analysis of quarters 1-3 only.

Run of the Mill Canadian Manager
This Post:
00
14900.685 in reply to 14900.684
Date: 10/13/2009 4:12:33 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
7575
Thx, that is a very good point. However, I´m still amazed how his non existent defence made me miss so much. We do take a lot of shots close to the basket, when I look at the shot chart. I guess that could be the thing that made the poor shooting percentage.

/Mannen
From: Mannen

This Post:
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14900.687 in reply to 14900.686
Date: 10/14/2009 4:49:14 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
7575
interesting boxscore, however
1- you missed a lot of 3-ptrs, he did quite well there - maybe that has to do more with shooting skills (+effort) than with opponent defense?
2- he fouled more and you did badly on the free throws
just my 2c
1- I did miss more shots and 3pointers as well, that is why i lost. But i did have worse shooting percentage all over the floor (26/53 49% compared to 32/54 59% from within the arc). Are you saying that defence dont affect the shooting %? I dont think that is your point, but that is how I interpret your message.

2- But if I had made all missed FT (+8 points) I would still have been far from winning. If we reduce the number of freethrows for extra chances (OR + TO) I end up with 13 of 15 and he 11 of 13. So missing those FT aint good but its not the game either.

/Mannen
From: Mannen

This Post:
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14900.689 in reply to 14900.688
Date: 10/15/2009 3:11:43 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
7575
You might be right. The point guard i used in that game usually never shoots the ball, since he mainly a passer and defender. He is around 5 in JS/JR/IS. He averages about 4 shots per game out of those 1,3 is a 3 pointer. In the game we are talking about he took 14 shots and 8 of those were 3 pointers. I thought this was because he was having a good chance of hitting the shot, but maybe he took them because he was unguarded.

The other player to miss a lot, was my SG. He is more of a scorer with around 8 in JS/JR/IS. He made 5 of 16 shots, during the season he has 45 of 100 and i would say that the defence have been far better in all those games. For 3 pointers he had 1 of 5 (16 of 37 during season)

What i dont get is the pp100shots, since i thought those were the actual probability's that were used in the game.

/Mannen
From: Exos

This Post:
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14900.690 in reply to 14900.689
Date: 10/15/2009 3:40:14 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
00
Your tactics was Princeton so your players avoid long 2 point shots. They take either 3 pts or go inside, at least I understand it that way.
Considering this the issue looks more troubling with the inside shots. And as stated before your guys just don't seem to crack the 3pts. The weak spot would have been the mid-range area, and exactly this was avoided by the set tactics.
Ok, just checked the replay of the match. The only guy really exploring this area was your starting-SF. His rating was only 6.0, maybe you should throw the blame on him ;)

All of the above: Just my opinion.


Cheers, Exos

This Post:
00
14900.691 in reply to 14900.688
Date: 10/15/2009 8:17:50 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
225225
what I meant - but I'm definitely not sure about this - is that if a player is much better in JS than JR, but forced to shoot a lot of threes, then his percentage will be worse than what's indicated by the match between outside attack vs outside defense ratings as well as overall shooting percentages.

I don't think so. PP100 are calculated ex-post, based on the shots actually taken in the game. Therefore, lower skills will cause a lower PP100, not vice versa.

Also, have in mind that a shot with a given percentage chance of going in will contribute differently to the PP100 if it's a three-pointer (.500 chance to score a 3 is 150 PP100, .500 chance to score a 2 is 100 PP100).

"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
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