but really the original poster needs to consider that this might be the best draftee he'll ever get in his entire Buzzerbeater career
I agree this might be the best player he will ever draft, but it's only cause he's the most valuable.
Well, my statement stands regardless of how each person parses the term "valuable." TL price, quality initial skills/potential , doesn't matter (and the former is obviously dependent upon the latter). This guy might be the high point of Mr.495's draftees. And as I said, at some point in the future he might regret selling him, if he chooses to go that way. Alternatively, he might regret
not selling him if he ends up getting poorly trained.
Just judging by the teams and players that are out there, the vast majority of MVP potentials never reach it or do it with low secondaries (making them cheap and not fulfilling their initial value) and even if he does the vast majority of teams that start in a d5 countries never make it to where having a 150k salary player is a good thing.
I agree that many managers in BB overpay for potential. No doubt about that. All that really does is impact how Mr.495 needs to weigh his option to sell or train. And if well trained, and if Mr.495 is able to move up through divisions, he may very well be able to use a lot of that potential.
There are plenty of players available with similar or better skill profiles for relatively cheap on the transfer list following every draft, so I don't agree this will be the best player to train he will ever get.
I was pretty clear to say that this player would be the best draftee that Mr.495 would get. Don't extrapolate that to "best player to train" ever. And even though I have been very lucky with my own drafting, I also would advise most managers to buy new trainees right after the season rollover, and not spend money the crapshoot that is the draft. But in this example, we're past that. The good draftee is already here.
It's not too hard to think of some SF builds using star potential or some PG/SG builds with allstar potential that are worth a million+ at age 25 and can be a great efficient cornerstones until d2.
I broadly agree with your point about potential, and I definitely used to feel that star and allstar potential were sufficient for many builds that I'd label as "good". But having now trained some guys up for multiple seasons, and having a better sense for what kinds of builds are needed to be a strong D3 team, that can be strong in D2, I don't agree so much. I think that star/allstar can get you players who are important role players in D2, as rotational guys and strong backups, but for top line starters I'm don't think so. I've seen too many players who capped at the low end of their potential range, leaving the trainer wanting for a few more pops. So, if I'm going to spend 5+ seasons training a guy, I want there to be a little headroom on the potential end, so I don't have to worry. And that's not to say that every trainee in your training program needs high potential.
I guess in the end, my preferences are exactly that, my preferences. I prefer training to TL buying and selling. I like the idea of trying to have almost all my starters be my own draftees (or at least significantly trained by me). And in so doing I kept a player to train who has excess potential for my training plans. But I don't consider my way to be any better, or more appropriate, than not training.
Mr.495 has to decide what his preferences are.If I'm arguing anything, it's that I don't see the choice to sell v. train here as being so overwhelming in either direction that it would override a reasonable decider's preferences (I fully admit I'm unreasonable when it comes to my own draftees). :)