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Draft potential

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268426.7 in reply to 268426.6
Date: 3/23/2015 2:35:10 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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I've been spending the maximum amount for the past 5-6 seasons, as it's part of the fun for me. So I know all about the scouting and using points.
But so far, I've only interviewed the players with 5 balls after I've scouted them once. But my question here is, is this random when it comes to potential? If I interview a guy with a star rating of 3, will I be just as likely to get a guy with 5 balls after the interview as if I interview a guy with a star rating of 5?
Is the star rating after the scouting a sign of his limit for potential? Or is it only a measurement of his current ability?

In your words : Will it be possible to get a 3/5 player?


It's possible. I don't know if there's some component that makes players with higher skill more likely or less likely to have higher potential, and my guess is that it's all random and probably a 1/5 player is possible as well. It may very well be hard to find data since people commonly won't interview players once they know them to have less than 4 star rating. Certainly that's an interesting idea.

This Post:
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268426.9 in reply to 268426.8
Date: 3/23/2015 7:42:40 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
32293229
If you haven't scouted yet, the ball rating you see is a "star rating" in grey balls, but that will be entirely random.


According to Marin, it is not.

I would say we should keep playing like it is random because it's more random than not, but he clearly said there is some reason behind the order of the draft list.

Basically, on average, number 42 on a draft list will be worse than number 8. Is it 51 out of 100 or 65 out of 100, I don't know. But according to Marin, it is at least 51 out of 100.


Wow. Despite my best intentions, I learned something today. Curse you!

This Post:
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268426.10 in reply to 268426.6
Date: 3/24/2015 4:09:14 AM
Woodbridge Wreckers
DBA Pro A
Overall Posts Rated:
13911391
In your words : Will it be possible to get a 3/5 player?


It's certainly possible, but I don't think there's data to show that it's as likely for a 3ball star rating player to turn out to have 5 potential after interview as for a 5ball star rating player, since that's the information you're looking for.

If you ask me, I'd think there's a slightly higher chance for a higher star rating player to have high potential, but that's just from personal experience and gut feeling.

This Post:
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268426.11 in reply to 268426.10
Date: 3/24/2015 6:18:53 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
33
Thanks for all your answers!

I might spend some of my points thsi monday on the players with 1 to 3 balls just to see if I can get potential ratings that are higher.

I learned that it's possible to save points to the following season (if I understand correct), so that's an important lesson. I did not know that.

This Post:
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268426.12 in reply to 268426.11
Date: 3/24/2015 6:49:46 AM
Woodbridge Wreckers
DBA Pro A
Overall Posts Rated:
13911391
Points can indeed be saved through following seasons.

Be aware that potential means less if the starting skills are lower, because you are unlikely to fulfill the MVP potential of a 1 ball star rating player. I generally don't find it worth it to interview 2 or 1 ball star rating players, and usually I skip the 3 stars too.

This Post:
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268426.14 in reply to 268426.12
Date: 3/24/2015 8:04:13 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
33
Points can indeed be saved through following seasons.

Be aware that potential means less if the starting skills are lower, because you are unlikely to fulfill the MVP potential of a 1 ball star rating player. I generally don't find it worth it to interview 2 or 1 ball star rating players, and usually I skip the 3 stars too.


Very true. Good observation.
I'll start by interviewing the 7 4-ball players I've got after the Group demonstration and Scouting combine. I got 8 5-ball players who have all been interviewed.