BuzzerBeater Forums

I skipped a game's recap because I was focusing on other things. Let me catch you up. The cup is now in the NBBA clusterfuck stage. The all star game came and went: the Great 8 pummeled the Big 8, then motioned for the team to be renamed the "Visionaries with some cameos". My boy Vaupotic won the 3 point competition because he knows that the moneyballs are worth more.

But let's get to today. As you know I'm a stingy mofo when it comes to normaling. There needs to be a very good reason and a good game plan to justify it. Today's decision to normal southpaw army was then the result of much agonizing, but once I made it, I started hatching a plan that I thought would work. Little did I know that my guy Quanfu chose to tank the game into the gutter, because he's sulking that I'm selling him tomorrow. I bought this guy in my first week after coming back to the game. Grew him into a formidable d.II level PF. He is the all time top scorer for my team by a mile, he is the top rebounder, and the top assistman. But tonight, he decided to sink us with a 1-10 stinker and 6 completely gratuitous fouls. So this is an ugly divorce. May he go for an absurd price tomorrow, and may he go to a team that doesn't value him.

The game, though, was a thing of beauty. The teams pushed the ball at each other and in true NBBA style they put up a clanker-fest for the ages. Southpaw left Nørgård on the bench, but in his limited minutes he did a ton of damage, especially when paired with fellow twin tower Dramic. A win for us would have changed the dynamic of the relegation race, as is we're still one win behind where we need to be.

One more thing happened today that does change that relegation race as well. Inexplicably, High Point Heroes punted a home game against Flashover. Whatever the reason, Flashover now gets an away win that offsets the fact that they have 3 home games in the final stretch.

In another game that was close for a long time, Deronimo falls at Big Gulp despite extra effort. Big Gulp's starters brought it tonight, especially the American trio, but the bench wasted some of their work. In the end they hung on, after pulling away in the fourth.

The Orchestra blows out Hipsterbears behind a big team shooting performance.

Everyone else is a punted blowout.




Last edited by Coco at 11/9/2024 10:21:48 PM

Day 14 (Saturday 9 November 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
Flashover 116 - High Point Heroes 51
Beware of Dogs 36 - Splash Gang 104
HipsterBears 91 - The Orchestra 125
Visionaries 111 - Sofuegg 79
Deronimo 95 - Big Gulp Reincarnated 106
Rhino’s Rage 30 - ExplosiveBubbleWrap 123
Warroad 37 - The White Walkers 123
Black Light 99 - southpaw army 103

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 125 : The Orchestra
Rebounds : 73 : ExplosiveBubbleWrap
Assists : 37 : The White Walkers
Steals : 12 : Splash Gang
Block Shots : 16 : ExplosiveBubbleWrap

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 37 : K. Sikes (Flashover)
Rebounds : 25 : M. Cornwell (ExplosiveBubbleWrap)
Assists : 12 : X. McNair (southpaw army)
Steals : 4 : A. Fornos (The White Walkers)
Block Shots : 9 : M. Cornwell (ExplosiveBubbleWrap)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : A. Fornos (The White Walkers) (19 Points, 6 Rebounds, 10 Assists, 4 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 37
Shooting Guard : S. Vilja (Flashover) (31 Points, 5 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 34
Small Forward : K. Sikes (Flashover) (37 Points, 5 Rebounds, 8 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 43
Power Forward : R. Mullins (The Orchestra) (20 Points, 11 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 0 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 27
Center : M. Cornwell (ExplosiveBubbleWrap) (32 Points, 25 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 9 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 60

MVP of the evening
M. Cornwell (ExplosiveBubbleWrap) (32 Points, 25 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 9 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 60

The bad performance of the evening
L. Holbrook (Beware of Dogs) (2 Points, 6 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -13

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : D. Raga (Beware of Dogs), D. Mathews (Warroad) : 6 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : L. Quanfu (Black Light) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : E. Cullen (High Point Heroes), H. Oehlenschläger (Beware of Dogs), D. Raga (Beware of Dogs), B. Dunning (Beware of Dogs), S. Ashville (Beware of Dogs), L. Holbrook (Beware of Dogs), M. Jorquera (Sofuegg), V. Khanyuk (Sofuegg), I. Polichronopoulos (Big Gulp Reincarnated), M. Cornwell (ExplosiveBubbleWrap), G. Žaltkauskas (Rhino’s Rage), M. Lange (Warroad), C. Staley (Warroad) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : S. Vilja (Flashover) : 7 Three points

The best performer : M. Giannoni (Splash Gang) : Rating : 21.0

The worst performer : C. Dupouy (Rhino’s Rage), J. Schilling (Rhino’s Rage) : Rating : 0.5

We're done with the interconference round. So time to mix it up a little. I went to every game and gave it a score from [0, 0.25, 5, .75 1] -- my coarse approximation of probability of win by the home team. I've done it in a couple stages and I'm not sure I tallied it up correctly, so I may have to fix it, but here is where my expectation is at of how many wins each team will accumulate at the end of the season.

Splash 15.25
White Walkers 14.25
Southpaw army 14
The Orchestra 12.25
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 11
Big Gulp Reincarnated 11
High Point Heroes 8.75
Sofuegg 0

Visionaries 20.5
Rhino’s Rage 12
Deronimo 11.25
Flashover 11.25
Beware of Dogs 11
Black Light 10.75
Warroad 9
Hipsterbears 5.75

My notable Great 8 qualitative predictions: (i) the Visionaries streak is likely to come to an end; (ii) Rhino's Rage will nab the second seed (iii) Hipsterbears is toast (iv) We are probably landing in 6th place, unless we win one of our difficult games.

My notable Big 8 qualitative predictions: today's ranking is likely to be the same as on the last day of the season, with the exception that I expect Splash Gang to have a bit more separation. (This is partly predicated on them being underdogs in the cup game).

Post your predictions and I'll score us by the Brier Rule (for each team, the square of the distance between the predicted value and the observed value; lower is better.)





Last edited by Coco at 11/12/2024 10:58:05 PM

Couldn't agree more with mine, the great sell off will begin in a few days and I'll probably swoop down to div 3 to try to right my finances and maybe train some guys. My utopia team has been in training mode for 4 seasons so we may just be switching directions.

I'll be back to chase the 100 win club in 4-5 seasons, hopefully! good luck to all

Day 15 (Tuesday 12 November 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
High Point Heroes 106 - Beware of Dogs 119
Splash Gang 101 - HipsterBears 84
The Orchestra 78 - Visionaries 100
Sofuegg 62 - Deronimo 137
Big Gulp Reincarnated 96 - Rhino’s Rage 83
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 77 - Warroad 99
The White Walkers 39 - Black Light 126
southpaw army 41 - Flashover 104

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 137 : Deronimo
Rebounds : 68 : Deronimo, Flashover
Assists : 36 : Deronimo
Steals : 11 : Black Light
Block Shots : 15 : Black Light

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 36 : S. Keburis (Beware of Dogs)
Rebounds : 27 : R. Salazar (Black Light)
Assists : 14 : P. Forsman (Deronimo)
Steals : 4 : M. Giannoni (Splash Gang), S. Martínez (Black Light)
Block Shots : 6 : R. Salazar (Black Light)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : C. Zheng Yang (Visionaries) (30 Points, 7 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 37
Shooting Guard : T. Vaupotič (Black Light) (23 Points, 9 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 2 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 36
Small Forward : R. De Martini (Flashover) (32 Points, 5 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 34
Power Forward : R. Salazar (Black Light) (18 Points, 27 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 1 Steals, 6 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 52
Center : R. Lesickas (Splash Gang) (4 Points, 19 Rebounds, 8 Assists, 3 Steals, 5 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 34

MVP of the evening
R. Salazar (Black Light) (18 Points, 27 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 1 Steals, 6 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 52

The bad performance of the evening
P. Karpos (The White Walkers) (0 Points, 3 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -15

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : P. Karpos (The White Walkers) : 8 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : K. Rodriguez (High Point Heroes), P. Wilkinson (Splash Gang), É. Blanchet (Sofuegg), X. Shunyao (Rhino’s Rage), G. Prescott (ExplosiveBubbleWrap) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : L. Runcheng (Sofuegg), Z. Banggui (Sofuegg), M. Koroman (Big Gulp Reincarnated), W. Chen (Flashover), P. Koon Wai (Flashover), W. Spears (southpaw army), W. Gill (southpaw army) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : M. Giannoni (Splash Gang), B. Kang (Visionaries), T. Han (Sofuegg), R. Celanova (ExplosiveBubbleWrap), P. Šestokas (Black Light) : 4 Three points

The best performer : C. Zheng Yang (Visionaries) : Rating : 22.5

The worst performer : P. Karpos (The White Walkers) : Rating : 2.0

Good stuff Coco! I'd like to make some predictions if I have time, we'll see.
Agree that my streak is coming to an end soon. It's been fun but you can't win'em all.

I’m sure you were all wondering like me if the cup seemed incredibly stacked compared to usual. The answer is yes. I went back more seasons than I’m willing to admit and we have basically double the NBBA teams compared to the average Round 9. A staggering 11 of the sweet 16 are NBBA. The next highest of seasons I checked was season 47 (I think, bit of a rush job) with 9. I think there were a couple 8s but the most common number was 5 or 6. There have also been many years with just 4.

Because of this, there is a decent chance of all NBBA elite 8, which I have to assume will be a first. So no pressure favorites!

And splash ruined it

Boooo Plasma boooo!

I don't remember any NBBA vs. NBBA matches until it was mathematically required except Visionaries vs. the Orchestra in round 3 or whatever it was. Really odd draws and few teams tanking/punting definitely stacked it up.

Finally, finally a good NBBA match-day.

In the exercise that generated the ranking a couple posts ago, I predicted home wins for everybody in this matchday except I gave 50% to EBW at home vs. Splash Gang and to my team against Visionaries. I'll touch on that second match later.

Let's start from the one I got wrong --- with a full fat 1 pt penalty. I did not think High Point Heroes had enough to win away against a fully trying Big Gulp. They were in the cup and solidly in a punt-the-away game pattern. But I made those predictions before the previous cup round. Since then, they have drawn Visionaries in the cup, which means their cup journey is over. So they reasoned exactly the same way I did a week ago vs. southpaw army: "can I surprise them with a normal on their turf while they expect my eyes to still be on the cup?". Yes you could! Big Gulp went with his C training at PG, which will be a great thing for them one day, but for now it's a bit of a liability. They TIEd like it was a stroll through the countryside. Well ... they were robbed on them country roads by an army of self-described heroes.

Since the two teams were tied, HPH now takes a slight lead in the standings. In my predicted final standings, I gave Big Gulp a significant lead largely based on this match. The adjusted prediction, updating on this result, would be Big Gulp finishing with 10 wins, and HPH with 9.75. This tells me HPH needs probably either another win or a home upset against one of the top seats to avoid 7-th place. But I may have underestimated them in some other matches too.

Now for the one I got half-wrong (predicted 0.5 so was always gonna get this half-wrong!). EBW took exactly zero chances at home against Splash Gang: normal, double guess, sacrifices of sheep to the BB Gods. The double guess only half-hit, but the rest was enough. The match was even through the middle of the third, when a one-two sequence from Cornwell and Ellis gave EBW its first 5 point lead. The lead would shrink, then expand, then shrink again, but it carried to the end. After the game Cornwell showed a t-shirt underneath his jersey that said "Put yourself on the TL"-- apparently a veiled reference to his GM who tried to sell him recently.

The closest game of the lot turned out to be the Orchestra at the White Walkers. (When I see "WW" on the scoreboard I keep thinking "Weight Watchers", but of course that's another world). This was close all the way and within 2 points in the last minute. Indeed, Sabine had on his hands the drive that could tie it up and potentially send it to overtime but it wasn't to be.

In the 7-8 match on the Great 8 side, Warroad handles Hipsterbears comfortably. Although I predicted a home win for flashover I'm not totally clear what happened in that game that allowed them to blow out Deronimo so comfortably with a trainee at C. Interestingly, Coach G sabotages Vilja minutes and allows Sikes to take the scoring lead.

As for us, I knew that if Peluin tried to come and take it, he would succeed. So no point in a normal. Either he played a compromised lineup (in which case I'd win comfortably), or he played the full shebang (in which case I should TIE). He went 90% full on, and that was always gonna be enough. Initially, I thought he might pay for it, but the way his week his shaping up, HPH is already telegraphing a less than competitive approach to the cup game, so the streak might well still be alive at the end of the week. The BB law of gravity is such that if you're strong, the game is easier for you. Visionaries are benefitting from this now, and at this point hopefully they will til the end of the season.



Last edited by Coco at 11/17/2024 8:11:53 AM

Doesn't seem like I'm gonna have time to make predictions. I could try to be objective/honest and pretend I didn't know the results from Saturday but I'm looking pretty slammed through Tuesday as well at this point...

Here's the BuzzerManager highlights at least!

Day 16 (Saturday 16 November 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
High Point Heroes 100 - Big Gulp Reincarnated 93
Splash Gang 78 - ExplosiveBubbleWrap 88
The Orchestra 70 - The White Walkers 76
Sofuegg 74 - southpaw army 130
HipsterBears 99 - Warroad 113
Visionaries 93 - Black Light 80
Deronimo 61 - Flashover 88
Rhino’s Rage 37 - Beware of Dogs 136

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 136 : Beware of Dogs
Rebounds : 68 : Beware of Dogs
Assists : 28 : Beware of Dogs
Steals : 8 : Beware of Dogs
Block Shots : 14 : Flashover

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 37 : Q. Ellis (ExplosiveBubbleWrap)
Rebounds : 25 : S. Colburn (ExplosiveBubbleWrap)
Assists : 14 : C. Cabasés (HipsterBears)
Steals : 3 : J. McKenna (The Orchestra), J. Wheatley (The White Walkers), S. Faryna (Sofuegg), D. Raga (Beware of Dogs)
Block Shots : 10 : I. Polichronopoulos (Big Gulp Reincarnated)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : W. Mott (Beware of Dogs) (32 Points, 5 Rebounds, 8 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 37
Shooting Guard : M. Alastrué (HipsterBears) (25 Points, 5 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 29
Small Forward : M. Giannoni (Splash Gang) (22 Points, 11 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 30
Power Forward : C. Giovinco (Beware of Dogs) (19 Points, 18 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 41
Center : N. Kiser (Big Gulp Reincarnated) (18 Points, 14 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32

MVP of the evening
C. Giovinco (Beware of Dogs) (19 Points, 18 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 41

The bad performance of the evening
Z. Banggui (Sofuegg) (2 Points, 5 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -12

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : M. Mysen (Rhino’s Rage), G. Žaltkauskas (Rhino’s Rage) : 5 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : L. Ragucos (Black Light), V. Polizzi (Beware of Dogs), G. Žaltkauskas (Rhino’s Rage) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : I. Polichronopoulos (Big Gulp Reincarnated), L. Runcheng (Sofuegg), Z. Banggui (Sofuegg), F. Fernandes (Flashover) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : R. Brooks (southpaw army) : 8 Three points

The best performer : K. Sikes (Flashover) : Rating : 21.5

The worst performer : C. Dupouy (Rhino’s Rage), J. Schilling (Rhino’s Rage) : Rating : 0.5