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The Quest for the Formulas (thread closed)

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46657.75 in reply to 46657.74
Date: 11/29/2008 11:24:19 AM
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I assume these come from simple linear regressions, right? What percentage of the variance in salary do the models explain? (or, in other words, what's the R-squared of the models above).

Also, have you considered the possibility that the models are non-linear (that is, salary is calculated by multiplying the variables instead of adding them)? In such case, the right way to do the regression would be to use the natural logarithms of skills, rather than their actual values.

Last edited by GM-kozlodoev at 11/29/2008 11:25:41 AM

"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
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46657.77 in reply to 46657.76
Date: 11/29/2008 11:51:42 AM
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Sorry, it seems you took time to explain earlier, but I was too lazy to look back. Will fix that, and thanks for taking the time to point to the correct posts.

"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
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46657.78 in reply to 46657.73
Date: 11/29/2008 2:01:45 PM
Le Cotiche
III.1
Overall Posts Rated:
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his real salary is 6089 and the predicted salary is 6409, this is only 5.2% off. It doesn't matter whether it's higher or lower, sublevels can explain both directions, because the model will unavoidably adapt its coefficients to the average of the sublevels it encounters in the training data, and this average is likely somewhere close to the middle of the range.


ooops sorry i'm an idiot, i typed the wrong actual salary in the excel file i'm using... forget about it

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46657.81 in reply to 46657.80
Date: 12/18/2008 8:41:13 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
458458
Hi Joseph. I would be happy to give you all of my game statistics for your research. However, I am not sure the best way to do this. Let me know. I have kept a lot of data. Unfortunately, I never kept records of team enthusiasm until now (from your BBmail to me) so I don't know how helpful it will be.

Anyway, let me know how I can help you.

Once I scored a basket that still makes me laugh.
From: dhoff

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46657.84 in reply to 46657.80
Date: 12/19/2008 11:18:47 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1919
I have to admit though that I have grown more sceptical about the relevance of the exact details of the team rating formulas for the game engine.

The BBs have said that the sector ratings have no relevance to the game engine themselves. They're there to give us an idea of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams.

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46657.85 in reply to 46657.84
Date: 12/19/2008 11:42:39 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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I have to admit though that I have grown more sceptical about the relevance of the exact details of the team rating formulas for the game engine.

The BBs have said that the sector ratings have no relevance to the game engine themselves. They're there to give us an idea of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams.

The only thing I can recall the BB team saying on this issue is that comparing team ratings is not a good tool for explaining which team won, and that PP100 is a better indicator of that.

My understanding is that team ratings are an input in the game engine in some form, together with individual player skills.

"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
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