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some draft question

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From: gselfish

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196908.8 in reply to 196908.4
Date: 9/22/2011 3:31:58 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
88
But as i understand it players with 5 balls have a slight higher probability to be higher on the list then those with one ball.


Of course, otherwise the lists would be totally random. :)

Just to give an idea, in my experience, you can expect about 50% of your 5-ball prospect to actually have a 5-star rating, while the odds decrease to 25% for 1,2-ball prospects. Not a huge difference if you're looking for a great player, and considering the cheapness of Group Demonstration.

The real difference is in the average rating, as you can expect a lot of awful players to pop up after group demonstration. I'd say that 5-ball prospects actually hide an average rating of about 4 balls, while 1,2-ball prospect have an average of 2.5 balls.

Additionally, I'm still convinced that, assuming their rating is equal, prospects from the top of the list tend to be better overall than the ones from the bottom (i.e., they tend to have a higher potential when you scout them twice). I do not have a clear evidence for that, however.

This Post:
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196908.9 in reply to 196908.7
Date: 9/22/2011 7:55:01 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
14651465
Aussie the draft is so random and cruel. All-Sorts picked one place before me and got Merlin West their first pick who was a $4,000 6'0" 19 year old superstar. I would have killed for him. Then one pick later I get my 4th preference a lump of rubbish Hori Broadfield 4k 6'3" 19 year old all star. I spent $280,000 on scouting. I would gladly have spent it to get Merlin and I missed him by one pick. Guess what All-Sorts did? Sold him for $3,000.

From: ibarix

This Post:
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196908.10 in reply to 196908.3
Date: 9/23/2011 5:48:28 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
706706
How can that be? Can you explain a bit further?

Like in reality, teams scout different players and scouts hear different things about crappy players :) Scouting a player (1 point) will reveal the same info to all of the teams that scouted that player.

From: ibarix

This Post:
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196908.11 in reply to 196908.9
Date: 9/23/2011 5:53:41 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
706706
LOL, I feel sorry for you but that's why it's called a draft lottery. Accent on lottery. :)

From: strilfe

This Post:
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196908.12 in reply to 196908.10
Date: 9/23/2011 8:44:50 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
246246
Some scouts said that Michael Olowakandi deserved to be number 1, Darko Milicic number 2 and Manu Ginobili 55, Luis Scola 56. Opinions are that, opinions.
If you see the scouts before any draft, you'll see that every analyst have a different mock draft. That's one of the many acievements of BB ;)