BuzzerBeater Forums

I think each skill drop is 10%, but you can roll very unlucky and do a double 10% drop on the same skill. So that might be what happened. For example 17.5 - 1.75 = 15.75- 1.575 = 14.175. I guess technically a 4 skill drop is possible if you are really really unlucky..

Season 64 Preview
Welcome to an awkward introduction of my team as the Lion Rebels venture into Div II with trepidation. The past several seasons in Div III.11 I've written up some rankings, which are usually LOUDLY INCORRECT (though I will say, I had last season's predictions nailed to a crooked T). Before I get to far in, here's how I run through the numbers to come to my grand conclusion:

I measure salary against the average for each category supplied and then assign a point value based on that. What are the categories, you ask? Well, Buzzer-Manager supplies these numbers for us, and the categories I pull through are as follows:
- Total Salary
- Top 5 Salary
- Top 8 Salary
- Top 10 Salary
- Top 6-10 Salary

Of those categories, I weigh Total Salary the highest, followed by Top 6-10 (what I call "bench play" but that's mostly a figure of speech), and then Top 5 and Top 8 are weighted equally, with Top 10 weighted the lowest. Here's how it works (based on Total Salary):
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average + $100,000 = 60 points
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average + $50,000 = 50 points
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average + $25,000 = 40 points
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average = 30 points
Team Total Salary < League Total Salary Average = 20 points
Team Total Salary + $25,000 < League Total Salary Average = 15 points
Team Total Salary + $50,000 < League Total Salary Average = 10 points
Team Total Salary + $100,000 < League Total Salary Average = 0 points

And so on and so forth for each added category. Top 6-10 is weighted from 0-50, Top 5 and Top 8 are weighted from 0-30, and Top 10 is weighted from 0-15 in similar fashion.

Once I have those set, I add each team's score up and divide by five and then you get the means by which I rank teams. Is it perfect? Nope! Is it normal? Not even! Does it make it more fun? I sure hope so!

Any ties are broken by the Top 6-10 rank (of which there was only one this year). All in all, if my predictions are correct, it looks to be pretty clear cut between who is good and who is not. But the great thing about this is that things will change drastically especially as roster moves are still on the horizon. So, it's important to note that 17 potential transfers out of the league, with eight of those being BIG MOVES (salary of at least $39k). And that doesn't include anyone bringing anyone else in.

My usual disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, but I am a dork who can't get enough of this dumb game, thus my predictions. Before the ranking predictions, here are some of the highlights and lowlights of our league.

Current League Leaders in Salary
1. TripB - $723k. Four players at more than $100k. Wowza.
2. The Phantom Thieves - $671k. Three players at more than $100k. Wowz.
3. Deronimo - $656k. Four players more than $100k, with one on the chopping block and the other with a stomach virus.

Fab 5's
These aren't necessarily the starting 5, but instead the top 5 paid players, in which we see the same trio:
1. TripB - $657k - 90.8% of their total salaries
2. The Phantom Thieves - $582k - 86.7%
3. Deronimo - $529k - 80.6%

Overall, the 16 teams average $402k for top 5 paid players with six teams averaging $50k more than that average and eight teams averaging less than the average.

Current League Leaders in Assumed Top Bench Players (Top 6-10)
1. Blue Ocean - $159k ($31.8k per player and the clear standout in Top 6-10)
2. The Reductions - $115k ($23k per player)
3. Deronimo - $111k ($22.2k per player)

Just two other teams are spending more than $100k on their top 6-10 players.

Season 64 Final Ranking Predictions
Feel free First Take me to death with these things. And don't forget, these salary numbers will most definitely change, but my terrible predictions never will! Total points achieved in my rankings will be in parenthesis. And typically, I have more commentary, but just arriving in this league, I don't have as much historical knowledge, so forgive me if I'm short-winded...I'm not normally.

16. BrokeGang (1) - BabyTrav scored themselves 5 points in the Top 6-10 category, but otherwise were blanked.

15. Wobbles (2.2) - Toast hit on Top 5 and Top 6-10. This is fun! Normally I see several teams score zero in my messed-up formula.

14. In your face (3) - Xtc scored 15 points in assumed bench players.

13. Wilmington Tiger Sharks (3.6) - I'm not actually saying there's a chance, but I will say it wouldn't be the first time my 13th preseason ranked projection made a run in the play offs.

12. F.Day Internet Lovers Club (5.4) - Not gonna lie, I was LIVID when I saw Mc KR's squad follow me to my new beloved home, but then to see THEY WERE IN THE SAME CONFERENCE AGAIN. At any rate, this is going to come back to bite me, especially with a game one matchup against them.

11. Wellington Warthogs (6) - JVOW20's crew picked up points in every category but Total Salary. Can't say they're NOT trying. At least at something (again, I like to just piss people off because that ALWAYS works out in my favor).

10. Lion Rebels (11.6) - As the Internet Lovers will attest, I proclaimed I would be tanking this season, last season. And now that I'm here, it's not like I think I've got a shot. But I'm here to confirm, I definitely don't have a shot.

9. The Reductions (12.4) - stillhere is still here, just not in III.4 anymore.

8. Stark Contrast (15) - astarkfuture has $377k in salary potentially moving (and $4.75 M coming their way if that happens), which could blow up my whole system, which wouldn't be the first time.

7. Blue Ocean (20.2) - depending on what Stark does, stiver may be the first team on this list with a true shot. But what do I know, I just got here.

6. Resurrected Fury (24) - (spoiler alert!) These last six teams all belong to the Great 8. Ya'll weren't goofin' when you said they were stacked!

5. The White Walkers (27) - I've loathed the day I'd see the Night King again ever since they stormed through my beloved III.11 back in Season 60. Didn't think I'd see you again so soon, friend!

4. TripB (28) - Here's my first curveball, relegating Lonzo ball to 4th after they ranked #1 in each category except for Top 6-10, where they ranked 13th.

3. Harbor City Storm (29) - 4th across the board in each category except top 6-10, Dr. Baller lands in the top 3.

2. The Phantom Thieves (30) - Mamaluigi5's group makes the cut with 2's across the board except for a 7th place finish in top 6-10.

1. Deronimo (35) - The clear-cut winner, according to my sham system, Hokied is surely going to rue the day I posted this for all to see.

Last edited by Baine at 3/9/2024 5:28:03 PM

Season 64 Conference Standings and Playoff/Relegation Predictions

Conference Standings

Big 8
1. Blue Ocean
2. Stark Contrast
3. The Reductions
4. Lion Rebels (HA)
5. F.Day Internet Lovers Club
6. Wilmington Tiger Sharks
7. In your face
8. Wobbles

Great 8
1. Deronimo
2. The Phantom Thieves
3. Harbor City Storm
4. TripB
5. The White Walkers
6. Resurrected Fury
7. Wellington Warthogs
8. BrokeGang

Playoff/Relegation Predictions
Great 8 Playoffs
TripB vs. Deronimo
Harbor City Storm vs. The Phantom Thieves

Big 8 Playoffs
Lion Rebels vs. Blue Ocean
The Reduction vs. Stark Contrast

Great 8 Semi-Final Matchup
TripB vs. The Phantom Thieves

Big 8 Semi-Final Matchup
The Reduction vs. Blue Ocean

Relegation Matchups
F.Day Internet Lovers Club over Wellington Warthogs in three
Resurrected Fury over Wilmington Tiger Sharks in two
The White Walkers over In your face in two

Season 64 Championship
The Phantom Thieves over The Reduction in three.

And so, there you have it! Also, in picking the playoff/relegation games I did absolutely ZERO research and just picked based on what seemed good based on the text on my computer screen. Good luck this season and may the best team prove me wrong!

Last edited by Baine at 3/9/2024 5:27:37 PM

Tried all day to get a temporary cheap big but failed.

Wow tough OT L to start my season.. Gg TripB was a close game literally could have gone either way.

Day 1 (Saturday 9 March 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
In your face 88 - Wilmington Tiger Sharks 106
Blue Ocean 90 - Stark Contrast 103
F.Day Internet Lovers Club 93 - Lion Rebels 105
The Reductions 115 - Wobbles 100
The White Walkers 109 - Harbor City Storm 117
TripB 110 - Resurrected Fury 109
BrokeGang 82 - Wellington Warthogs 100
Deronimo 110 - The Phantom Thieves 119

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 119 : The Phantom Thieves
Rebounds : 61 : Wellington Warthogs
Assists : 32 : Harbor City Storm
Steals : 10 : Stark Contrast, Harbor City Storm
Block Shots : 5 : Stark Contrast

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 40 : T. Espinosa (Deronimo)
Rebounds : 20 : S. Elizondo (TripB), D. Etchegoyen (TripB)
Assists : 11 : W. Jackson (Wilmington Tiger Sharks), D. Sapounopoulos (The Reductions), P. Melucci (Harbor City Storm), T. Graf (BrokeGang)
Steals : 4 : T. Deltuvas (TripB)
Block Shots : 4 : D. Shabasov (Stark Contrast)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : B. Kimball (The Phantom Thieves) (29 Points, 8 Rebounds, 10 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 34
Shooting Guard : C. Major (The Reductions) (36 Points, 6 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 40
Small Forward : C. Nguyen (The Phantom Thieves) (24 Points, 13 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 1 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 34
Power Forward : J. Oltran (Harbor City Storm) (29 Points, 10 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 30
Center : D. Etchegoyen (TripB) (26 Points, 20 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 36

MVP of the evening
C. Major (The Reductions) (36 Points, 6 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 40

The bad performance of the evening
M. Shannon (Wobbles) (13 Points, 0 Rebounds, 9 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -4

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : J. Oltran (Harbor City Storm) : 5 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : T. Knott (Wilmington Tiger Sharks), J. Vega (The Reductions), A. Argento (Deronimo) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : R. Woodward (Resurrected Fury), D. Etchegoyen (TripB) : 52 Minutes

The shooter : T. Espinosa (Deronimo), O. Volbergs (Deronimo) : 6 Three points

The best performer : C. Nguyen (The Phantom Thieves) : Rating : 16.5

The worst performer : R. Melgar (Stark Contrast), E. Cristofaro (The White Walkers) : Rating : 3.5

Day 2 (Tuesday 12 March 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
Wilmington Tiger Sharks 69 - Blue Ocean 117
Stark Contrast 74 - F.Day Internet Lovers Club 107
Lion Rebels 64 - The Reductions 85
Wobbles 107 - In your face 115
Harbor City Storm 112 - TripB 130
Resurrected Fury 110 - BrokeGang 91
Wellington Warthogs 91 - Deronimo 109
The Phantom Thieves 112 - The White Walkers 102

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 130 : TripB
Rebounds : 60 : Blue Ocean, F.Day Internet Lovers Club
Assists : 32 : Deronimo
Steals : 17 : Deronimo
Block Shots : 5 : F.Day Internet Lovers Club, Resurrected Fury

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 42 : J. Blanc (TripB)
Rebounds : 21 : P. Runxin (Harbor City Storm)
Assists : 12 : J. Blanc (TripB)
Steals : 4 : S. Milanov (Deronimo)
Block Shots : 3 : D. Branimirović (F.Day Internet Lovers Club), S. Elizondo (TripB)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : J. Blanc (TripB) (42 Points, 3 Rebounds, 12 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 43
Shooting Guard : M. Shannon (Wobbles) (39 Points, 5 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 45
Small Forward : C. Nguyen (The Phantom Thieves) (29 Points, 8 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 37
Power Forward : E. Velasquez (Blue Ocean) (21 Points, 13 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots), R. Woodward (Resurrected Fury) (20 Points, 13 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Center : P. Runxin (Harbor City Storm) (22 Points, 21 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 34

MVP of the evening
M. Shannon (Wobbles) (39 Points, 5 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 45

The bad performance of the evening
S. Cavada (Stark Contrast) (27 Points, 4 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -4

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : D. Bratić (Wellington Warthogs), S. Guerrero (Wellington Warthogs) : 6 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : M. Brems (The White Walkers), M. Chin Jin (The White Walkers), W. Pajdzik (The Phantom Thieves) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : J. Godwin (Wilmington Tiger Sharks), N. Matos (Wilmington Tiger Sharks), S. Cavada (Stark Contrast), L. Sucharskas (Stark Contrast), D. Branimirović (F.Day Internet Lovers Club), G. Camisassa (Wobbles), G. Lim (BrokeGang), T. Kirby (BrokeGang) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : J. Blanc (TripB) : 9 Three points

The best performer : M. Shannon (Wobbles), T. Deltuvas (TripB), J. Blanc (TripB), C. Nguyen (The Phantom Thieves) : Rating : 17.0

The worst performer : C. Meyers (Stark Contrast) : Rating : 2.5

Day 3 (Saturday 16 March 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
F.Day Internet Lovers Club 80 - Wilmington Tiger Sharks 94
The Reductions 91 - Stark Contrast 80
In your face 69 - Lion Rebels 86
Blue Ocean 107 - Wobbles 89
BrokeGang 111 - Harbor City Storm 123
Deronimo 107 - Resurrected Fury 94
The White Walkers 113 - Wellington Warthogs 102
TripB 97 - The Phantom Thieves 116

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 123 : Harbor City Storm
Rebounds : 59 : F.Day Internet Lovers Club
Assists : 33 : BrokeGang
Steals : 14 : The White Walkers
Block Shots : 14 : Lion Rebels

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 36 : E. Urbina Arce (Stark Contrast)
Rebounds : 24 : W. Pajdzik (The Phantom Thieves)
Assists : 11 : W. Stubblefield (BrokeGang)
Steals : 5 : E. Olveira (The White Walkers)
Block Shots : 6 : C. Venanzi (Resurrected Fury)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : O. Volbergs (Deronimo) (26 Points, 6 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Shooting Guard : E. Urbina Arce (Stark Contrast) (36 Points, 1 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 24
Small Forward : C. Nguyen (The Phantom Thieves) (26 Points, 7 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 2 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 28
Power Forward : J. Oltran (Harbor City Storm) (29 Points, 14 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 1 Steals, 5 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 42
Center : W. Pajdzik (The Phantom Thieves) (21 Points, 24 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 36

MVP of the evening
J. Oltran (Harbor City Storm) (29 Points, 14 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 1 Steals, 5 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 42

The bad performance of the evening
I. Petrenko (The Phantom Thieves) (3 Points, 4 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -4

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : D. Etchegoyen (TripB) : 6 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : D. Etchegoyen (TripB) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : L. Melucci (F.Day Internet Lovers Club), L. Sucharskas (Stark Contrast), L. Kunkun (Stark Contrast), N. Sikalopoulos (In your face), D. Militaru (In your face), M. Runyon (Wobbles), B. Szegletes (BrokeGang), S. Okanović (BrokeGang), D. Freire (The White Walkers) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : E. Urbina Arce (Stark Contrast) : 5 Three points

The best performer : A. Fornos (The White Walkers) : Rating : 20.5

The worst performer : E. Cristofaro (The White Walkers), D. Petrželka (The White Walkers) : Rating : 3.5

Day 4 (Tuesday 19 March 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
Wilmington Tiger Sharks 80 - The Reductions 81
Stark Contrast 90 - In your face 106
Lion Rebels 92 - Blue Ocean 107
Wobbles 63 - F.Day Internet Lovers Club 96
Harbor City Storm 88 - Deronimo 101
Resurrected Fury 108 - The White Walkers 103
Wellington Warthogs 124 - TripB 117
The Phantom Thieves 112 - BrokeGang 98

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 124 : Wellington Warthogs
Rebounds : 60 : The Reductions
Assists : 39 : TripB
Steals : 8 : Lion Rebels
Block Shots : 7 : Wilmington Tiger Sharks, The Phantom Thieves

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 48 : E. Olveira (The White Walkers)
Rebounds : 21 : P. Levy (Wobbles)
Assists : 14 : T. Deltuvas (TripB)
Steals : 3 : L. Melucci (F.Day Internet Lovers Club), E. Pool (The Phantom Thieves)
Block Shots : 3 : S. Calvos de Randín (Wilmington Tiger Sharks), M. Taulats (Deronimo)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : E. Olveira (The White Walkers) (48 Points, 1 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 39
Shooting Guard : E. Webster (BrokeGang) (39 Points, 5 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Small Forward : J. Wheatley (The White Walkers) (29 Points, 8 Rebounds, 8 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 33
Power Forward : P. Levy (Wobbles) (29 Points, 21 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 41
Center : R. Woodward (Resurrected Fury) (26 Points, 16 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 36

MVP of the evening
P. Levy (Wobbles) (29 Points, 21 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 41

The bad performance of the evening
V. Abat (F.Day Internet Lovers Club) (4 Points, 0 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -3

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : T. Graf (BrokeGang) : 5 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : B. Couch (Stark Contrast), T. Armstead (Lion Rebels), J. Oltran (Harbor City Storm), J. Wheatley (The White Walkers), C. Nguyen (The Phantom Thieves) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : E. Urbina Arce (Stark Contrast), P. Levy (Wobbles), G. Camisassa (Wobbles), D. Branimirović (F.Day Internet Lovers Club), R. Woodward (Resurrected Fury), R. Idah (BrokeGang) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : E. Olveira (The White Walkers) : 9 Three points

The best performer : N. Kimball (Resurrected Fury), C. Nguyen (The Phantom Thieves) : Rating : 19.0

The worst performer : A. Mallol (Wobbles) : Rating : 1.5

Just wanna say I really appreciate these posts! Good work on them.