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And splash ruined it

Boooo Plasma boooo!

I don't remember any NBBA vs. NBBA matches until it was mathematically required except Visionaries vs. the Orchestra in round 3 or whatever it was. Really odd draws and few teams tanking/punting definitely stacked it up.

Finally, finally a good NBBA match-day.

In the exercise that generated the ranking a couple posts ago, I predicted home wins for everybody in this matchday except I gave 50% to EBW at home vs. Splash Gang and to my team against Visionaries. I'll touch on that second match later.

Let's start from the one I got wrong --- with a full fat 1 pt penalty. I did not think High Point Heroes had enough to win away against a fully trying Big Gulp. They were in the cup and solidly in a punt-the-away game pattern. But I made those predictions before the previous cup round. Since then, they have drawn Visionaries in the cup, which means their cup journey is over. So they reasoned exactly the same way I did a week ago vs. southpaw army: "can I surprise them with a normal on their turf while they expect my eyes to still be on the cup?". Yes you could! Big Gulp went with his C training at PG, which will be a great thing for them one day, but for now it's a bit of a liability. They TIEd like it was a stroll through the countryside. Well ... they were robbed on them country roads by an army of self-described heroes.

Since the two teams were tied, HPH now takes a slight lead in the standings. In my predicted final standings, I gave Big Gulp a significant lead largely based on this match. The adjusted prediction, updating on this result, would be Big Gulp finishing with 10 wins, and HPH with 9.75. This tells me HPH needs probably either another win or a home upset against one of the top seats to avoid 7-th place. But I may have underestimated them in some other matches too.

Now for the one I got half-wrong (predicted 0.5 so was always gonna get this half-wrong!). EBW took exactly zero chances at home against Splash Gang: normal, double guess, sacrifices of sheep to the BB Gods. The double guess only half-hit, but the rest was enough. The match was even through the middle of the third, when a one-two sequence from Cornwell and Ellis gave EBW its first 5 point lead. The lead would shrink, then expand, then shrink again, but it carried to the end. After the game Cornwell showed a t-shirt underneath his jersey that said "Put yourself on the TL"-- apparently a veiled reference to his GM who tried to sell him recently.

The closest game of the lot turned out to be the Orchestra at the White Walkers. (When I see "WW" on the scoreboard I keep thinking "Weight Watchers", but of course that's another world). This was close all the way and within 2 points in the last minute. Indeed, Sabine had on his hands the drive that could tie it up and potentially send it to overtime but it wasn't to be.

In the 7-8 match on the Great 8 side, Warroad handles Hipsterbears comfortably. Although I predicted a home win for flashover I'm not totally clear what happened in that game that allowed them to blow out Deronimo so comfortably with a trainee at C. Interestingly, Coach G sabotages Vilja minutes and allows Sikes to take the scoring lead.

As for us, I knew that if Peluin tried to come and take it, he would succeed. So no point in a normal. Either he played a compromised lineup (in which case I'd win comfortably), or he played the full shebang (in which case I should TIE). He went 90% full on, and that was always gonna be enough. Initially, I thought he might pay for it, but the way his week his shaping up, HPH is already telegraphing a less than competitive approach to the cup game, so the streak might well still be alive at the end of the week. The BB law of gravity is such that if you're strong, the game is easier for you. Visionaries are benefitting from this now, and at this point hopefully they will til the end of the season.



Last edited by Coco at 11/17/2024 8:11:53 AM

Doesn't seem like I'm gonna have time to make predictions. I could try to be objective/honest and pretend I didn't know the results from Saturday but I'm looking pretty slammed through Tuesday as well at this point...

Here's the BuzzerManager highlights at least!

Day 16 (Saturday 16 November 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
High Point Heroes 100 - Big Gulp Reincarnated 93
Splash Gang 78 - ExplosiveBubbleWrap 88
The Orchestra 70 - The White Walkers 76
Sofuegg 74 - southpaw army 130
HipsterBears 99 - Warroad 113
Visionaries 93 - Black Light 80
Deronimo 61 - Flashover 88
Rhino’s Rage 37 - Beware of Dogs 136

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 136 : Beware of Dogs
Rebounds : 68 : Beware of Dogs
Assists : 28 : Beware of Dogs
Steals : 8 : Beware of Dogs
Block Shots : 14 : Flashover

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 37 : Q. Ellis (ExplosiveBubbleWrap)
Rebounds : 25 : S. Colburn (ExplosiveBubbleWrap)
Assists : 14 : C. Cabasés (HipsterBears)
Steals : 3 : J. McKenna (The Orchestra), J. Wheatley (The White Walkers), S. Faryna (Sofuegg), D. Raga (Beware of Dogs)
Block Shots : 10 : I. Polichronopoulos (Big Gulp Reincarnated)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : W. Mott (Beware of Dogs) (32 Points, 5 Rebounds, 8 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 37
Shooting Guard : M. Alastrué (HipsterBears) (25 Points, 5 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 29
Small Forward : M. Giannoni (Splash Gang) (22 Points, 11 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 30
Power Forward : C. Giovinco (Beware of Dogs) (19 Points, 18 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 41
Center : N. Kiser (Big Gulp Reincarnated) (18 Points, 14 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32

MVP of the evening
C. Giovinco (Beware of Dogs) (19 Points, 18 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 41

The bad performance of the evening
Z. Banggui (Sofuegg) (2 Points, 5 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -12

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : M. Mysen (Rhino’s Rage), G. Žaltkauskas (Rhino’s Rage) : 5 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : L. Ragucos (Black Light), V. Polizzi (Beware of Dogs), G. Žaltkauskas (Rhino’s Rage) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : I. Polichronopoulos (Big Gulp Reincarnated), L. Runcheng (Sofuegg), Z. Banggui (Sofuegg), F. Fernandes (Flashover) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : R. Brooks (southpaw army) : 8 Three points

The best performer : K. Sikes (Flashover) : Rating : 21.5

The worst performer : C. Dupouy (Rhino’s Rage), J. Schilling (Rhino’s Rage) : Rating : 0.5

Dang, thought it may be a punt but was too scared to TIE.

Update final standings predictions, factoring in the last two games. The big swing in the Big 8 was Saturday's win by HPH @ Big Gulp. Both have difficult remaining schedules with three away games. It's neck and neck between them for the seventh place, but Big Gulp is almost certain to have the PD tiebreaker. EBW has the same record at the moment, but has three home games left. If my calculations are accurate the playoff / relegation race on the Big 8 side is set.

On the Great 8 side, Warroad takes a game I wasn't expecting from Rhino's. This increases my expectation of their win total for them, but the schedule still has them severe underdogs, if the goal is to avoid the seventh place game. This game also knocks Rhino's out of my expected second place --- still likely to make playoffs. The bracket between 2 and 6 is tight: there are 5 teams whose current expectation of total wins is within 0.25 of each other. One of the key matches will be Flashover @ Beware of Dogs on the last game day, in just over a couple weeks.

Splash 15 (-0.25)
White Walkers 14.5 (+0.25)
Southpaw army 13.5 (-0.5)
The Orchestra 12 (-0.25)
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 10.75 (-0.25)
Big Gulp Reincarnated 9.75 (-1.25)
High Point Heroes 9.5 (+ 0.75)
Sofuegg 0

Visionaries 21 (+0.5)
Flashover 11.5 (+0.25)
Rhino’s Rage 11.5 (-0.5)
Beware of Dogs 11.5 (0.25)
Deronimo 11.25 (0)
Black Light 11.25 (+0.5)
Warroad 9.75 (+0.75)
Hipsterbears 4 (-1.75)

Needless to say I'm evaluating this abstractly, without thinking about who might let go of the rope e.g. because their seed is set on the last game day.

If my prediction is correct in the relevant respects the Great #8 will have HCA in the 6 vs. 6 seed game.

Last edited by Coco at 11/19/2024 10:42:35 PM

Day 17 (Tuesday 19 November 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 82 - High Point Heroes 95
The White Walkers 27 - Splash Gang 116
southpaw army 81 - The Orchestra 92
Big Gulp Reincarnated 102 - Sofuegg 60
Black Light 111 - HipsterBears 101
Flashover 90 - Visionaries 99
Beware of Dogs 46 - Deronimo 137
Warroad 113 - Rhino’s Rage 95

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 137 : Deronimo
Rebounds : 70 : High Point Heroes
Assists : 35 : Deronimo
Steals : 16 : Splash Gang
Block Shots : 13 : The Orchestra

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 33 : Y. Chichenkov (HipsterBears), K. Sikes (Flashover)
Rebounds : 21 : M. Bambis (High Point Heroes)
Assists : 11 : Q. Hô (Deronimo)
Steals : 5 : M. Giannoni (Splash Gang)
Block Shots : 5 : G. Spain (The Orchestra)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : R. Sabine (The Orchestra) (20 Points, 9 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 2 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 28
Shooting Guard : M. Giannoni (Splash Gang) (26 Points, 7 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 5 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 35
Small Forward : C. Deisig (Big Gulp Reincarnated) (30 Points, 3 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 28
Power Forward : R. Beyhan (Deronimo) (16 Points, 15 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 2 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 36
Center : R. Harrell (Warroad) (10 Points, 14 Rebounds, 9 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 33

MVP of the evening
R. Beyhan (Deronimo) (16 Points, 15 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 2 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 36

The bad performance of the evening
A. Mentis (The White Walkers) (3 Points, 2 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -18

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : M. Imširović (Flashover) : 6 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : J. Toney (The Orchestra), L. Ragucos (Black Light) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : M. Koroman (Big Gulp Reincarnated), M. Jorquera (Sofuegg), V. Khanyuk (Sofuegg), K. Tai Ching (Flashover), D. Erickson (Beware of Dogs), B. Dunning (Beware of Dogs), S. Ashville (Beware of Dogs), L. Holbrook (Beware of Dogs) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : B. Brannon (Splash Gang), M. Giannoni (Splash Gang), C. Deisig (Big Gulp Reincarnated), K. Banniseth (Deronimo), T. Vickers (Warroad) : 4 Three points

The best performer : D. Cho (Splash Gang), M. Giannoni (Splash Gang) : Rating : 21.5

The worst performer : D. Petrželka (The White Walkers) : Rating : 2.5

Day 18 (Saturday 23 November 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
High Point Heroes 81 - The White Walkers 104
Splash Gang 79 - southpaw army 71
The Orchestra 78 - Big Gulp Reincarnated 94
Sofuegg 67 - ExplosiveBubbleWrap 99
HipsterBears 86 - Flashover 107
Visionaries 95 - Beware of Dogs 75
Deronimo 84 - Warroad 99
Rhino’s Rage 79 - Black Light 93

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 107 : Flashover
Rebounds : 63 : ExplosiveBubbleWrap
Assists : 27 : Big Gulp Reincarnated
Steals : 9 : Black Light
Block Shots : 11 : Splash Gang, ExplosiveBubbleWrap

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 39 : K. Sikes (Flashover)
Rebounds : 19 : D. Ortega (ExplosiveBubbleWrap)
Assists : 10 : Q. Hô (Deronimo)
Steals : 3 : M. Jorquera (Sofuegg)
Block Shots : 6 : J. Toney (The Orchestra)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : Y. Se Hong (ExplosiveBubbleWrap) (20 Points, 1 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 22
Shooting Guard : B. Kang (Visionaries) (22 Points, 7 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 26
Small Forward : K. Sikes (Flashover) (39 Points, 2 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 38
Power Forward : R. Mullins (The Orchestra) (15 Points, 14 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 2 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 30
Center : P. Dramić (southpaw army) (19 Points, 16 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 2 Steals, 1 Block Shots), R. Harrell (Warroad) (14 Points, 15 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 2 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 30

MVP of the evening
K. Sikes (Flashover) (39 Points, 2 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 38

The bad performance of the evening
A. Cartago (Rhino’s Rage) (4 Points, 2 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -8

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : G. Lee (The White Walkers), V. Štefan (HipsterBears), G. Grueso (Rhino’s Rage) : 4 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : R. Lesickas (Splash Gang) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : I. Polichronopoulos (Big Gulp Reincarnated), M. Jorquera (Sofuegg), V. Khanyuk (Sofuegg), T. Goldstein (Flashover) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : R. Faryna (The White Walkers), S. Vilja (Flashover) : 5 Three points

The best performer : K. Sikes (Flashover) : Rating : 22.5

The worst performer : V. Khanyuk (Sofuegg) : Rating : 5.5

Not much in the way of surprises.

The big one for me was Splash Gang winning @ southpaw army. I confidently predicted a home win, and the home team used more effort and put up higher ratings: southpaw has been so often on the losing end of surprising games that I'm going to stop speculating what might be going wrong for them. I don't know. If I lost this game I'd be pissed, and the single correct GDP doesn't change much.

Visionaries keeps eating away at the 50% I had given to home opponents. I had done so in the belief that Visionaries might play somewhat weakened lineups, but so far it hasn't happened. At this point, they are clearly going for the double undefeated season, and if I could update my prediction to 22-0 I would. I'd like to put on people's radar that it's in play (and not a low probability event either) that Visionaries will have the single best season by USA team of all time once league, cup and B3 are all factored in.

I wouldn't count it as a surprise but I had given Deronimo 25% chance of winning away at Warroad.

My game with Rhino's Rage was ruined by the early injury to his SF Shunyao (thankfully it did not last). We were favorite regardless of the injury, but after it I was comfortable that it was gonna be a blow out (even if I did get an in-game injury myself). I was a little surprised that Rhino started his top guys but TIEd. I feared top guys + Normal, but the TIE made it a low percentage play.

Updated projection (in parenthesis change from previous game day).

Splash Gang 16 (+1)
White Walkers 14.5 (0)
Southpaw army 12.5 (-1)
The Orchestra 12 (0)
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 10.75 (0)
Big Gulp Reincarnated 9.75 (0)
High Point Heroes 9.5 (0)
Sofuegg 0

Visionaries 21.5 (+0.5)
Flashover 11.5 (0)
Rhino’s Rage 11.5 (0)
Black Light 11.25 (0)
Beware of Dogs 11 (-0.5)
Deronimo 11 (- 0.25)
Warroad 10 (+0.25)
Hipsterbears 4 (0)

In the likely event of a tie at 11, the current PD rankings would be:

Deronimo > Black Light > Beware of Dogs > Flashover > Warroad > Rhino's

Last edited by Coco at 11/24/2024 5:37:17 PM

as long as I make the playoffs I am happy!

You end the season on two away games -- both very consequential. One @ me, and one @ Beware of Dogs on the last gameday.