It's actually more common than you would think that many players from the top team end up in the MVP voting, especially with more than 20 wins. Check out II.1 for example. I wouldn't count TarTeam out by any means, game 1 I had more enthusiasm, CT vs Normal, HCA, and they guessed wrong on tactics. I think it will be really close.
The sad part is that we would have both been guaranteed promotion but F.Day Internet Love in II.3 won their last game by 110 points and then lost first round meaning they will take the at large promotion spot.