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Update final standings predictions, factoring in the last two games. The big swing in the Big 8 was Saturday's win by HPH @ Big Gulp. Both have difficult remaining schedules with three away games. It's neck and neck between them for the seventh place, but Big Gulp is almost certain to have the PD tiebreaker. EBW has the same record at the moment, but has three home games left. If my calculations are accurate the playoff / relegation race on the Big 8 side is set.

On the Great 8 side, Warroad takes a game I wasn't expecting from Rhino's. This increases my expectation of their win total for them, but the schedule still has them severe underdogs, if the goal is to avoid the seventh place game. This game also knocks Rhino's out of my expected second place --- still likely to make playoffs. The bracket between 2 and 6 is tight: there are 5 teams whose current expectation of total wins is within 0.25 of each other. One of the key matches will be Flashover @ Beware of Dogs on the last game day, in just over a couple weeks.

Splash 15 (-0.25)
White Walkers 14.5 (+0.25)
Southpaw army 13.5 (-0.5)
The Orchestra 12 (-0.25)
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 10.75 (-0.25)
Big Gulp Reincarnated 9.75 (-1.25)
High Point Heroes 9.5 (+ 0.75)
Sofuegg 0

Visionaries 21 (+0.5)
Flashover 11.5 (+0.25)
Rhino’s Rage 11.5 (-0.5)
Beware of Dogs 11.5 (0.25)
Deronimo 11.25 (0)
Black Light 11.25 (+0.5)
Warroad 9.75 (+0.75)
Hipsterbears 4 (-1.75)

Needless to say I'm evaluating this abstractly, without thinking about who might let go of the rope e.g. because their seed is set on the last game day.

If my prediction is correct in the relevant respects the Great #8 will have HCA in the 6 vs. 6 seed game.

Last edited by Coco at 11/19/2024 10:42:35 PM

Day 17 (Tuesday 19 November 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 82 - High Point Heroes 95
The White Walkers 27 - Splash Gang 116
southpaw army 81 - The Orchestra 92
Big Gulp Reincarnated 102 - Sofuegg 60
Black Light 111 - HipsterBears 101
Flashover 90 - Visionaries 99
Beware of Dogs 46 - Deronimo 137
Warroad 113 - Rhino’s Rage 95

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 137 : Deronimo
Rebounds : 70 : High Point Heroes
Assists : 35 : Deronimo
Steals : 16 : Splash Gang
Block Shots : 13 : The Orchestra

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 33 : Y. Chichenkov (HipsterBears), K. Sikes (Flashover)
Rebounds : 21 : M. Bambis (High Point Heroes)
Assists : 11 : Q. Hô (Deronimo)
Steals : 5 : M. Giannoni (Splash Gang)
Block Shots : 5 : G. Spain (The Orchestra)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : R. Sabine (The Orchestra) (20 Points, 9 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 2 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 28
Shooting Guard : M. Giannoni (Splash Gang) (26 Points, 7 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 5 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 35
Small Forward : C. Deisig (Big Gulp Reincarnated) (30 Points, 3 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 28
Power Forward : R. Beyhan (Deronimo) (16 Points, 15 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 2 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 36
Center : R. Harrell (Warroad) (10 Points, 14 Rebounds, 9 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 33

MVP of the evening
R. Beyhan (Deronimo) (16 Points, 15 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 2 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 36

The bad performance of the evening
A. Mentis (The White Walkers) (3 Points, 2 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -18

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : M. Imširović (Flashover) : 6 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : J. Toney (The Orchestra), L. Ragucos (Black Light) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : M. Koroman (Big Gulp Reincarnated), M. Jorquera (Sofuegg), V. Khanyuk (Sofuegg), K. Tai Ching (Flashover), D. Erickson (Beware of Dogs), B. Dunning (Beware of Dogs), S. Ashville (Beware of Dogs), L. Holbrook (Beware of Dogs) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : B. Brannon (Splash Gang), M. Giannoni (Splash Gang), C. Deisig (Big Gulp Reincarnated), K. Banniseth (Deronimo), T. Vickers (Warroad) : 4 Three points

The best performer : D. Cho (Splash Gang), M. Giannoni (Splash Gang) : Rating : 21.5

The worst performer : D. Petrželka (The White Walkers) : Rating : 2.5

Day 18 (Saturday 23 November 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
High Point Heroes 81 - The White Walkers 104
Splash Gang 79 - southpaw army 71
The Orchestra 78 - Big Gulp Reincarnated 94
Sofuegg 67 - ExplosiveBubbleWrap 99
HipsterBears 86 - Flashover 107
Visionaries 95 - Beware of Dogs 75
Deronimo 84 - Warroad 99
Rhino’s Rage 79 - Black Light 93

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 107 : Flashover
Rebounds : 63 : ExplosiveBubbleWrap
Assists : 27 : Big Gulp Reincarnated
Steals : 9 : Black Light
Block Shots : 11 : Splash Gang, ExplosiveBubbleWrap

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 39 : K. Sikes (Flashover)
Rebounds : 19 : D. Ortega (ExplosiveBubbleWrap)
Assists : 10 : Q. Hô (Deronimo)
Steals : 3 : M. Jorquera (Sofuegg)
Block Shots : 6 : J. Toney (The Orchestra)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : Y. Se Hong (ExplosiveBubbleWrap) (20 Points, 1 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 22
Shooting Guard : B. Kang (Visionaries) (22 Points, 7 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 26
Small Forward : K. Sikes (Flashover) (39 Points, 2 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 38
Power Forward : R. Mullins (The Orchestra) (15 Points, 14 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 2 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 30
Center : P. Dramić (southpaw army) (19 Points, 16 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 2 Steals, 1 Block Shots), R. Harrell (Warroad) (14 Points, 15 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 2 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 30

MVP of the evening
K. Sikes (Flashover) (39 Points, 2 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 38

The bad performance of the evening
A. Cartago (Rhino’s Rage) (4 Points, 2 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -8

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : G. Lee (The White Walkers), V. Štefan (HipsterBears), G. Grueso (Rhino’s Rage) : 4 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : R. Lesickas (Splash Gang) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : I. Polichronopoulos (Big Gulp Reincarnated), M. Jorquera (Sofuegg), V. Khanyuk (Sofuegg), T. Goldstein (Flashover) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : R. Faryna (The White Walkers), S. Vilja (Flashover) : 5 Three points

The best performer : K. Sikes (Flashover) : Rating : 22.5

The worst performer : V. Khanyuk (Sofuegg) : Rating : 5.5

Not much in the way of surprises.

The big one for me was Splash Gang winning @ southpaw army. I confidently predicted a home win, and the home team used more effort and put up higher ratings: southpaw has been so often on the losing end of surprising games that I'm going to stop speculating what might be going wrong for them. I don't know. If I lost this game I'd be pissed, and the single correct GDP doesn't change much.

Visionaries keeps eating away at the 50% I had given to home opponents. I had done so in the belief that Visionaries might play somewhat weakened lineups, but so far it hasn't happened. At this point, they are clearly going for the double undefeated season, and if I could update my prediction to 22-0 I would. I'd like to put on people's radar that it's in play (and not a low probability event either) that Visionaries will have the single best season by USA team of all time once league, cup and B3 are all factored in.

I wouldn't count it as a surprise but I had given Deronimo 25% chance of winning away at Warroad.

My game with Rhino's Rage was ruined by the early injury to his SF Shunyao (thankfully it did not last). We were favorite regardless of the injury, but after it I was comfortable that it was gonna be a blow out (even if I did get an in-game injury myself). I was a little surprised that Rhino started his top guys but TIEd. I feared top guys + Normal, but the TIE made it a low percentage play.

Updated projection (in parenthesis change from previous game day).

Splash Gang 16 (+1)
White Walkers 14.5 (0)
Southpaw army 12.5 (-1)
The Orchestra 12 (0)
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 10.75 (0)
Big Gulp Reincarnated 9.75 (0)
High Point Heroes 9.5 (0)
Sofuegg 0

Visionaries 21.5 (+0.5)
Flashover 11.5 (0)
Rhino’s Rage 11.5 (0)
Black Light 11.25 (0)
Beware of Dogs 11 (-0.5)
Deronimo 11 (- 0.25)
Warroad 10 (+0.25)
Hipsterbears 4 (0)

In the likely event of a tie at 11, the current PD rankings would be:

Deronimo > Black Light > Beware of Dogs > Flashover > Warroad > Rhino's

Last edited by Coco at 11/24/2024 5:37:17 PM