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Not much in the way of surprises.

The big one for me was Splash Gang winning @ southpaw army. I confidently predicted a home win, and the home team used more effort and put up higher ratings: southpaw has been so often on the losing end of surprising games that I'm going to stop speculating what might be going wrong for them. I don't know. If I lost this game I'd be pissed, and the single correct GDP doesn't change much.

Visionaries keeps eating away at the 50% I had given to home opponents. I had done so in the belief that Visionaries might play somewhat weakened lineups, but so far it hasn't happened. At this point, they are clearly going for the double undefeated season, and if I could update my prediction to 22-0 I would. I'd like to put on people's radar that it's in play (and not a low probability event either) that Visionaries will have the single best season by USA team of all time once league, cup and B3 are all factored in.

I wouldn't count it as a surprise but I had given Deronimo 25% chance of winning away at Warroad.

My game with Rhino's Rage was ruined by the early injury to his SF Shunyao (thankfully it did not last). We were favorite regardless of the injury, but after it I was comfortable that it was gonna be a blow out (even if I did get an in-game injury myself). I was a little surprised that Rhino started his top guys but TIEd. I feared top guys + Normal, but the TIE made it a low percentage play.

Updated projection (in parenthesis change from previous game day).

Splash Gang 16 (+1)
White Walkers 14.5 (0)
Southpaw army 12.5 (-1)
The Orchestra 12 (0)
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 10.75 (0)
Big Gulp Reincarnated 9.75 (0)
High Point Heroes 9.5 (0)
Sofuegg 0

Visionaries 21.5 (+0.5)
Flashover 11.5 (0)
Rhino’s Rage 11.5 (0)
Black Light 11.25 (0)
Beware of Dogs 11 (-0.5)
Deronimo 11 (- 0.25)
Warroad 10 (+0.25)
Hipsterbears 4 (0)

In the likely event of a tie at 11, the current PD rankings would be:

Deronimo > Black Light > Beware of Dogs > Flashover > Warroad > Rhino's

Last edited by Coco at 11/24/2024 5:37:17 PM

as long as I make the playoffs I am happy!

You end the season on two away games -- both very consequential. One @ me, and one @ Beware of Dogs on the last gameday.

good reminder...I think I know what to do then

The Big 8 went chalk today, but we had a massive game day in the Great 8, where the two surprising wins were ones where I had given full confidence to the losing team.

The only movement in the Big 8 is that I had given 50/50 for southpaw army @ HPH, but with a bit extra effort the Heroes held serve. Big Gulp hit the double guess which kept them in the game, but ultimately too hard to win at the home of the table leader while running the offense through an out of position trainee (who'll eventually be a spectacular player).

I had a sense that we had a chance at Deronimo if I picked the right tactics. And indeed we led nearly all of the way. Slightly unlucky shooting from SF and PF was counterbalanced by lucky shooting at PG and SG. Terrible news on the Forsman injury: I feel like this is one of the most injury-plagued seasons I've followed. I have a very high threshold for justifying playing normal but this one made sense: Deronimo was playing a rival, and has two games coming up --- a very likely win and a very likely loss --- where enthusiasm won't make a difference. His next big match that could go a surprising way is on the last day of the season when he has to visit Rhino's Rage.

Hipsterbears beat Beware of Dogs. I had zero-ed out Hipsterbears chance at another win after they sold off a player, but they are still a great team. As Peluin noted in the Discord group, the Hipsterbears have to be one of the best 8-th seed in history.

Updated projected final stadings:

Splash Gang 16 (0)
White Walkers 14.5 (0)
Southpaw army 12 (-0.5)
The Orchestra 12 (0)
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 10.75 (0)
High Point Heroes 10 (+0.5)
Big Gulp Reincarnated 9.75 (0)
Sofuegg 0

Visionaries 21.5 (0)
Black Light 12.25 (+1)
Flashover 11.5 (0)
Rhino’s Rage 11.5 (0)
Deronimo 10 (-1)
Beware of Dogs 10 (-1)
Warroad 10 (0)
Hipsterbears 5 (+1)


Last edited by Coco at 11/26/2024 10:36:58 PM

Looking bad for Deronimo