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Public Relations Managers help market the team to the fans

Market the team meaning also selling jerseys and such, so merchandising. I'm pretty sure having a star player from your country is a big merchandising boost, NT selection is also a huge boost.

As for the hypothesis, this is not a theory I'm testing, it's just a vague idea so there is no need to formulate an accurate hypothesis... Basically it's an input-output analysis with only a few variables (15 and collected during 12 weeks so 180 elements). This is a modelling exercise with not enough variables so it's bound to be innacurate and hard to analyse. And I understand your point (I think), you're saying that an experiment must test a theory, and for this test to be efficient you have to formulate correctly your hypothesis in order to collect only the right data. Sure thing but I'm not exactly experimenting I'm trying to understand a system and find the typical response to a known input (PRM level).
So yes the data collected won't be enough, and some variables may be applied while it shouldn't, nonetheless it should provide some answers.
Imagine that with a lvl 4 PRM manager my merchandise revenue does not increase significantly (let's say less than + 20%) while my roster stays the same and my results are constant then we'll know that "merchandising-wise" it's not profitable to acquire a lvl 4 PRM.

Market the team meaning also selling jerseys and such, so merchandising.

I can't disprove this, but I think it is a stretch to say that this marketing directly translates into merchandising revenues.

And I understand your point (I think), you're saying that an experiment must test a theory, and for this test to be efficient you have to formulate correctly your hypothesis in order to collect only the right data

Yes, thank you. That is what I was meaning to say, except a good experiment can also test a question or validate previous results. It seems to me you may also be asking your question in a certain way and looking for a particular result. I recommend reading about confirmation bias effects on information processing.

This is a modelling exercise with not enough variables so it's bound to be innacurate and hard to analyse.

So yes the data collected won't be enough, and some variables may be applied while it shouldn't, nonetheless it should provide some answers.

So you expect this to be an inaccurate and difficult exercise with limited data and question your own methods with regard to applying variables, but anticipate reliable results?

"On two occasions I have been asked,—'Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?' ... I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question."
—Charles Babbage

Imagine that with a lvl 4 PRM manager my merchandise revenue does not increase significantly (let's say less than + 20%) while my roster stays the same and my results are constant then we'll know that "merchandising-wise" it's not profitable to acquire a lvl 4 PRM.

I think this may lead you to suspect something as I have. Although I noticed a trend in my own observations I'm not going to jump to a conclusion that there are no other possible solutions. I'm not going to assume that inaccuracies in my own data couldn't possibly cloak something important. Perhaps the results are random, and you just happened to get the same number several times in a row? This often happens with random number generation algorithms. There are many other explanations I can think of even based on either a positive or negative result from this exercise. I'm not saying this because I am trying to deter you from investigating or destruct your efforts. I do feel that we need reliable information on the subject.


Last edited by bonespawn at 10/26/2010 11:58:33 AM

So you expect this to be an inaccurate and difficult exercise with limited data and question your own methods with regard to applying variables, but anticipate reliable results?

Well I'm just pointing out the obvious, I mean the only information we have on merchandising is merchandising revenue... However if we're looking for a trend, as you said, it may corroborate yours, or not. My main objective is collecting data and trying to get something out of it. If I find something that seems meaningless, well I'll just say it is indeed meaningless and I won't try to arrange the results in order to prove something. If I find a strong tendency (like the +20% I mentioned earlier) well maybe it becomes necessary to investigate more and to conduct a real experiment (like asking to several GMs to record specific data, the specific part has yet to be determined). I believe the preliminary "random" data collecting part is usefull because if nothing dramatic comes out of it, there's no need to spend time and money on a thorough experiment.

I believe the preliminary "random" data collecting part is usefull because if nothing dramatic comes out of it, there's no need to spend time and money on a thorough experiment.

Ah, but it was one of your most notable countrymen, René Descartes, who supported advancements in deductive reasoning and discarded perception as unreliable. The problem of induction is a philosophical argument that has been going on since ancient times. I'm pretty sure my side is winning, but I don't think we will end this debate tonight on buzzerbeater

Ah, but it was one of your most notable countrymen, René Descartes, who supported advancements in deductive reasoning and discarded perception as unreliable. The problem of induction is a philosophical argument that has been going on since ancient times. I'm pretty sure my side is winning, but I don't think we will end this debate tonight on buzzerbeater :)

Boundaries between deductive reasoning and perception are thinner than one might think. Also relying only on deductive reasoning is very dangerous and can lead to unreliable theories. The big bang theory is a good example.

Last edited by Qu4l0 at 10/26/2010 6:38:09 PM

One of the most amazing threads I have ever read. It was so much fun reading the endless debates and especially the off-topic discussion For me, I don't care if PR managers affect merch or not. As long as they have a specialty and affect attendance, I don't care about anything else

H

OMG just win the game, get promote, get a U21 or NT, having 1/2 local players
and we can totally ignore the minimal effect of GOD and PRM