BuzzerBeater Forums

To be extremely accurate on your results from the analysis. If team A wins 10 out of 100 sims and you only sim 5 times for example, there is a high chance the first sims are in favor of team A, and the result is inaccurate.

I agree with RAKBA about the advantage, but I dont think that DLR or any other manager who knows the result of 250 sims of the same game, can really use it. We will probably validate this next season

Like I said SB is not calculated properly in the sims, so to this particular game, I dont see any problem

You said otherwise in previous post, maybe I misunderstood.

Anyway, I would really like someone to explain to me how exactly can DLR or the finnish guy can take advantage of these simulations just by knowing the results.

Anyway, I would really like someone to explain to me how exactly can DLR or the finnish guy can take advantage of these simulations just by knowing the results.

I would be curious too...

Well we've already seen in this thread Darkonako say he expected DLR to have a 50-60% chance of winning (before GDP), instead the actual percentage was 89%. People might have gone away trying to analyse how Hupipalloilijat made the game so close and coming up with all sorts of reasons, when now we know by far the main reason was luck (not to take anything away from how good their team is).

England U21 had a surprising result last season - (67362). We would have definitely benefitted from running more simulations and knowing the exact win percentage (although I don't believe we should be able to access that information).

I remember the same discussion happened a few seasons ago (can't remember which thread it was), I think my opinion is still the same:

* I'm fine with running simulations for the B3 final and maybe some other key games like NT/U21 finals, it creates an interesting discussion without revealing too much.

* I'm fine with Justin providing some extra information about how BB works, and think he's doing a great job for BB overall.

* But we should be careful exactly how much information is provided, to keep some of the mystery. As we can see in this thread there is a variety of opinions on what people would prefer.

* And there should be some sort of consistent and public process to it, to ensure fairness (and the appearance of fairness). At the moment information is revealed in private messages, random forum threads, random comments in the Discord. The "2022 BuzzerBeater Knowledge Base" thread is great because it tries to collect all these nuggets of wisdom in one place, accessable to anyone. But there's still an impression (rightly or wrongly) that some managers get access to more information than is available in that thread.

And finally congratulations to both teams, especially DLR on a fantastic season.

Anyway, I would really like someone to explain to me how exactly can DLR or the finnish guy can take advantage of these simulations just by knowing the results.

That isn't what people have a problem with. JUSTIN DIDN'T share the sim results with the BB community, he shared them with another manager. That manager posted them on here. Why is Justin running sims for managers? What other games has Justin run sims on for other managers?

Do you have proof that he does it for a certain number of managers? Because i only see one manager and one game . Dont take things out of proportion.

Hi
I think Justin has to answer to at least 30 bb mail question everyday and we can just be thankfull he do... From my experience when the question is something sensitive he doesnt answer back.

When you re beggining you dont want to read a 100p of manual.... In my opinion the manual is long enough

When managers wants to dig to improve their knowledge of the game they have the forum. When they take a lot of extra time to read every info on every topic it's fair they get some extra info.

Knowing what works and what doesnt at this level is an huge advantage.

I dont see how its a "huge advantage". They don't know "what if i play BO instead of PTB"
They don't know that the simulation 137 include more of stamina and gives an advantage to the team B.

I get that you're mad at the fact that was Joe and not Justin who came and told us the info but eather way we would have known.
I'm sorry but i think you're being a little "drama queen" here but i may be wrong :)

Sorry for my bad english.

Congratulations for the champ, great run!
Every $ was worth it ;)

You are kind of missing the point.

The main difference here is the info being shared via proxy versus Justin coming here himself and telling us he did this out of curiousity. Now it just leaves people wondering what he shares behind closed doors and to who he does tell all the information.

Would it be better if they updated the manual to include all the information shared on the forums? Absolutely.

Am I against running these simulations and giving this kind of info to anyone? Yes.

If I may say something to this topic...

It was always a possible way of communication with the BBs. During the time were I analysed all the tactics, defenses and skill sets, I wrote several mails to the BBs and asked them to check or run something that looked strange or was out of the expected scope.

My analysis showed that the two boxes were switched. I reported it to the BBs and they run it. But only after several seasons the change came.

I made the first OD ID SB player and shared my results with the BB. They checked it and the impact of OD was adjusted.
The first check for JR came also after that.
Also the impact of SB (after the raise) was checked. I showed the numbers, why 3-2 zone + SB is a monster tactic.

The combination of skills (ID+SB, DR+IS, JS+JR ...) were also discussed a little bit.

Blank + LCD and the loop hole in the substitution (calculated player ratiing) was such a topic.

GDP: I asked Marin about my 7,5%+2,5% result, shortly after it was released. Only during the last seasons I found out, it is not correct yet, but not far away.

In 2010 I went through every post of all the BBs and set up a database. Most of the points were clear, what was open was asked in "Ask a BB" or direct via Mail.

JosephKa ran a lot of tests and had exchange with BBs. We came at the same time to the 61 minutes (60,7) for the perfect game shape.
There are always managers who search, try, calculate and dig deaper than the rest. In the end the whole community benefits from it.

When I started building the SB players and explaining why SB is important, 99,9% of the managers shook their heads. If I look at the teams now... hell. SB is in the middle of discussion. Nobody would believe it when I started to build Haek.

Yes Joe asked Justin. That is great that he thought about this and than shared it with us. This was always the way: analyse, share the results, go on.

Last edited by Nachtmahr at 2/6/2023 9:53:11 AM

Dont even bother. Some people just like to complain. I have probably read all of your posts about game analysis. People who appreciate the help given to them just enjoy the game. Others though...dont. It is just a matter of character and perspective