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Day 20 (Saturday 30 November 2024) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
High Point Heroes 85 - The Orchestra 90
Splash Gang 85 - Sofuegg 43
Big Gulp Reincarnated 68 - The White Walkers 63
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 119 - southpaw army 126
HipsterBears 123 - Deronimo 113
Visionaries 123 - Rhino’s Rage 103
Warroad 81 - Flashover 83
Black Light 85 - Beware of Dogs 99

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 126 : southpaw army
Rebounds : 62 : Splash Gang
Assists : 36 : Visionaries
Steals : 9 : Black Light
Block Shots : 12 : Big Gulp Reincarnated

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 46 : Q. Ellis (ExplosiveBubbleWrap)
Rebounds : 18 : P. Wilkinson (Splash Gang), M. Koroman (Big Gulp Reincarnated)
Assists : 10 : R. Elegido (Visionaries)
Steals : 3 : T. McAllister (Splash Gang), F. Pitir (Deronimo), T. Villagran (Black Light)
Block Shots : 9 : M. Koroman (Big Gulp Reincarnated)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : X. McNair (southpaw army) (34 Points, 5 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 43
Shooting Guard : T. Meade (The Orchestra) (37 Points, 8 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 41
Small Forward : Q. Ellis (ExplosiveBubbleWrap) (46 Points, 5 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 46
Power Forward : B. Sledz (southpaw army) (34 Points, 11 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 38
Center : A. Alvarez (Sofuegg) (18 Points, 13 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 1 Steals, 4 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 31

MVP of the evening
Q. Ellis (ExplosiveBubbleWrap) (46 Points, 5 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 46

The bad performance of the evening
É. Blanchet (Sofuegg) (2 Points, 7 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -12

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : B. Brannon (Splash Gang), D. Freire (The White Walkers), R. Beyhan (Deronimo), Y. Chichenkov (HipsterBears), G. Grueso (Rhino’s Rage), C. Morse (Warroad), W. Tolbert (Beware of Dogs) : 4 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : A. Conejos (High Point Heroes), M. Bambis (High Point Heroes), M. Piskin (Deronimo), F. Fernandes (Flashover) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : M. Jorquera (Sofuegg), V. Khanyuk (Sofuegg), M. Koroman (Big Gulp Reincarnated) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : F. Pitir (Deronimo) : 6 Three points

The best performer : A. Taylor (Visionaries) : Rating : 22.0

The worst performer : R. Valentin (Sofuegg) : Rating : 3.5

Gameday 20 was a thriller for the ages. Five games were neck and neck and were decided in the final minutes (though in a couple cases the winning team stretched their advantage at the end). To keep this manageable I’ll give you one recap per conference.

The Big 8 had three competitive games: EBW used enthusiasm to keep it tight against southpaw army. But in the final minutes the home team pulled away. EBW definitely paid a hard price for their fouls, with southpaw hitting 33 out of 34 free throws. For their part Southpaw managed to score against the A+ perimeter defense of EBW. My prediction now has EBW finishing somewhere between fifth and sixth place depending on whether they win one or both of their next two home games (though seventh is in play if Splash Gang does not go all out on the last day of the season at home against HPH).

HPH used a guess to mess with the Orchestra. Maestro Meade snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with an incredibly efficient 37 points. HPH had to deal with the fouling out of both Conejos and “more fouls than points” Bambis. With a total combined 52 free throws and 36 missed three pointes the game wasn’t pretty. The upshot is that it solidifies the Orchestra’s grip on third place. The model predicts they will finish 1-1. Unless Southpaw army can beat Big Gulp while playing away, that will do it for the Orchestra. What matters of course is that both the Orchestra and southpaw army are likely to both be in the playoffs.

They would be much closer to mathematical certainty (NB: as a professional logician it behooves me to say that this should be “logical certainty”, but we’ve lost this battle as a field) if not for the shocker of the day: Big Gulp’s victory at White Walkers. This game was another rockfight. I would disparage Big Gulp’s totaling only 14 assists, but WW had actually 10 assists only (against 11 turnovers). Big Gulp looked to be in trouble when Duff went down with an injury, but he came back to finish the game and ended up with a game-best +19 plus minus. Big Gulp's remaining game are southpaw at home and EBW away, with fifth place as most likely finish.

Updated projection
Splash Gang 16 (0)
White Walkers 13.5 (-1)
The Orchestra 12 (0)
Southpaw army 12 (0)
Big Gulp Reincarnated 10.75 (+1)
ExplosiveBubbleWrap 10.75 (0)
High Point Heroes 10 (0)
Sofuegg 0


Last edited by Coco at 11/30/2024 11:03:28 PM

In the Great 8, the two close games were Warroad @ Flashover and Hipsterbears @ Deronimo.

Hipsterbears continues to win games, even after I zeroed out their chances (However, they are at this point guaranteed autorelegation). Deronimo is, as Hokied himself pointed out, in trouble. The loss here drops Deronimo to an almost certain seventh spot, given that they have two difficult away games to end the season.

Flashover eked out a 2 point home win in a game that was tied with two minutes to go. The usually potent Flashover offense bumped against Warroad’s defense. They now end the season with two away games, @ yours truly and @ Beware of Dogs. My prediction only gives them a quarter of a win, but they are functionally already in the playoffs: Deronimo won’t catch them because they have to play Visionaries; Beware of Dogs could catch them if they win out, but even that would at worst drop them to fourth place. And Rhino and Warroad are too far underwater with their PD.

In any case, my prediction from a few weeks ago has Warroad winning the home game vs. Beware and then losing at my arena. This would give them 10 wins. In the fine-grained representation this appears good for fifth place. But Warroad’s bad PD entails that if Beware wins against Flashover on the last day of the season, they will drop to sixth place.

Speaking of Beware: combining the advantage of HCA and extra effort they handled us relatively comfortably. The prospects for Beware are straightforward: win both of their remaining matches and they are a playoff team; win 1 and they are fifth; lose both and they drop to sixth (unless Deronimo stings Rhino).

Our prospects are also simple: win 1 of two home games remaining (Flashover and Warroad) and we’re in the playoffs. Lose both, and we could drop as low as seventh still.

Updated projection (with some fudging because I realized I had made some mistakes)
Visionaries 22 (+0.5)
Black Light 12 (-0.25)
Flashover 11.25 (0)
Rhino’s Rage 11 (-0.5)
Warroad 10 (0)
Beware of Dogs 9.5 (+0.25)
Deronimo 9 (-1)
Hipsterbears 6 (+1)

Last edited by Coco at 11/30/2024 11:30:32 PM

The Pekka injury was the nail in our coffin.

And I thought this was the time I would stay up on our 4th trip to the NBBA, but not looking good.

Last edited by Hokied at 12/1/2024 11:01:16 AM