In the Great 8, the two close games were Warroad @ Flashover and Hipsterbears @ Deronimo.
Hipsterbears continues to win games, even after I zeroed out their chances (However, they are at this point guaranteed autorelegation). Deronimo is, as Hokied himself pointed out, in trouble. The loss here drops Deronimo to an almost certain seventh spot, given that they have two difficult away games to end the season.
Flashover eked out a 2 point home win in a game that was tied with two minutes to go. The usually potent Flashover offense bumped against Warroad’s defense. They now end the season with two away games, @ yours truly and @ Beware of Dogs. My prediction only gives them a quarter of a win, but they are functionally already in the playoffs: Deronimo won’t catch them because they have to play Visionaries; Beware of Dogs could catch them if they win out, but even that would at worst drop them to fourth place. And Rhino and Warroad are too far underwater with their PD.
In any case, my prediction from a few weeks ago has Warroad winning the home game vs. Beware and then losing at my arena. This would give them 10 wins. In the fine-grained representation this appears good for fifth place. But Warroad’s bad PD entails that if Beware wins against Flashover on the last day of the season, they will drop to sixth place.
Speaking of Beware: combining the advantage of HCA and extra effort they handled us relatively comfortably. The prospects for Beware are straightforward: win both of their remaining matches and they are a playoff team; win 1 and they are fifth; lose both and they drop to sixth (unless Deronimo stings Rhino).
Our prospects are also simple: win 1 of two home games remaining (Flashover and Warroad) and we’re in the playoffs. Lose both, and we could drop as low as seventh still.
Updated projection (with some fudging because I realized I had made some mistakes)
Visionaries 22 (+0.5)
Black Light 12 (-0.25)
Flashover 11.25 (0)
Rhino’s Rage 11 (-0.5)
Warroad 10 (0)
Beware of Dogs 9.5 (+0.25)
Deronimo 9 (-1)
Hipsterbears 6 (+1)
Last edited by Coco at 11/30/2024 11:30:32 PM