BuzzerBeater Forums

Season 66 Preview

Welcome to an unrequested introduction of my team as the Lion Rebels tumbles back into Div III with fear and loathing. Excluding last season, I've produced some rankings which are mostly wild shots in the dark based on data that changes by the minute throughout the first several weeks of the season. Sometimes I'm right, but usually I'm LOUD WRONG, which I proudly stand by.

How do I figure out the rankings?

I measure salary against the average for each category and then assign a point value based on that. What are the categories, you ask? Well, Buzzer-Manager supplies these numbers for us, and the categories I pull through are as follows:
- Total Salary
- Top 5 Salary
- Top 8 Salary
- Top 10 Salary
- Top 6-10 Salary

Of those categories, I weigh Total Salary the highest, followed by Top 6-10 (what I call "bench play" but that's mostly a figure of speech), and then Top 5 and Top 8 are weighted equally, with Top 10 weighted the lowest. Here's how it works (based on Total Salary):
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average + $100,000 = 60 points
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average + $50,000 = 50 points
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average + $25,000 = 40 points
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average = 30 points
Team Total Salary < League Total Salary Average = 20 points
Team Total Salary + $25,000 < League Total Salary Average = 15 points
Team Total Salary + $50,000 < League Total Salary Average = 10 points
Team Total Salary + $100,000 < League Total Salary Average = 0 points

And so on and so forth for each added category. Top 6-10 is weighted from 0-50, Top 5 and Top 8 are weighted from 0-30, and Top 10 is weighted from 0-15.

Once I have those set, I add each team's score up and divide by five and then you get the means by which I rank teams. Is it perfect? Nope! Is it normal? Not even! Does it make it more fun? I sure hope so!

Here's a quick example of how it works related to Total Salary. The average total salary (currently!) is $254k.
- 84th Street Hoopers has a total salary of $450k, which is more than $100k than the average, so they score 60 points in that category.
- Ewoks has a total salary of $274k, which nets them 30 points because it's less than $25,000 more than the average.
- Meanwhile, Chicago Trojans lands at $113k, which even if you added $100k still falls short of the average, meaning they score 0 points (I didn't think it would be fair to bring Windy City Heroes into this with their whopping $10k in salary at the moment.

Clear as mud? Great. Any ties are broken by the Top 6-10 rank (of which there were three this year). This looks like it is going to be an interesting season, with a couple of clear cut leaders and then a middle third that will look to bludgeon each other and a bottom group that has to figure out how to contend. But the great thing about this is that things will change drastically especially as roster moves are still on the horizon. So, it's important to note that 13 potential transfers out of the league, with only two of those being (not that) BIG (of) MOVES (two players with salaries of $14k or higher). And that doesn't include anyone bringing anyone else in.

My usual disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, but I am a dork who can't get enough of this dumb game, thus my predictions. Before the ranking predictions, here are some highlights and lowlights of our league.

Season 66 Preview - Part 2
Current League Leaders in Salary
1. 84th Street Hoopers - $450k. Five players at more than $50k.
2. Lion Rebels - $403k. Three players at more than $50k.
3. Mos Eisley Imperials - $342k. One player at more than $50k, which isn't really telling since Mr. Vaughn is set to make $137kk per week this season.

Fab 5's
These aren't necessarily the starting 5, but instead the top 5 paid players, in which we see the same trio with a slight switcharoo:
1. 84th Street - $334k - 74.2% of their total salaries
2. Imperials - $300k - 87.7%
3. Lion Rebels - $288k - 71.4%

Overall, the 16 teams average $182k for top 5 paid players with five teams averaging $50k more than that average and eight teams averaging less than the average.

Current League Leaders in Assumed Top Bench Players (Top 6-10)
1. Coolsville Comets - $105k ($21k)
2. Tulsa Tomatoes - $103k ($25.7k per [4] player)
3. 84th Street - $97k ($19.4k per player)

Just six teams are spending more than the league average on their top 6-10 players.

Season 66 Final Ranking Predictions
Feel free Stephen A me with these things. Just don't Shannon Sharp me ;) And don't forget, these salary numbers will most definitely change, but my terrible predictions never will! Total points achieved in my rankings will be in parenthesis. And typically, I have more commentary, but just arriving in this league, I don't have as much historical knowledge, so forgive me if I'm short-winded...I'm not normally.

16. The Windy City Heroes (0) - Zucchini goes all the way back to season 6 (happy anniversary!) Having transferred out their studs from last season, I'm assuming they're stockpiled for a new batch of stars. I'm certain this won't hold true unless they're looking to head down a division.

15. Celtic Saints (0) - Only two teams with zeros in my ranking mishap this season. Celtic is relatively new and forced up into Div III from IV.45 last year thanks to hitting the bar of Making the Playoffs.

14. Chicago Trojans (1) - PotatoPlayer scored their only points in Top 6-10 and are victims of being crowned champs in IV.51 last season.

13. Maryland Marauders (5) - Have no fear, MattyIce - plenty 13th preseason ranked teams in my flawed system have made it to the playoffs.

12. Hemet Hooligans (7) - Question: what is a hemet? Is it a mistype of helmet? Hazmat? Regardless, a playoff team two seasons running - this will probably be the one to bite me in the ass.

11. MORNINGZZZ (9) - While my own team name is boring, I love a great name - like, what was Coach J on when he signed up his squad in season 29 (10 YEARS AGO)?

10. Eugene Register-Guard 2.0 (15) - John Marcum follows me down from II.4. The former Yard Goats were in the NBBA as recently as season 64 so watch yo' self.

9. Motor City Machines (15) - Edging out Eugene thanks to 13k more in Top 6-10 salary, Motown elevated from IV.23 thanks to the unfortunate luck of bEiNG cRoWNed ChAMpioNs.

Last edited by Baine at 9/20/2024 12:47:33 PM

Season 66 Preview - Part 3
Season 66 Final Ranking Predictions Continued
8. Ewoks (19) - Venturing into our top half, Robwesben has also been afflicted with champion fever, arriving from IV.12.

7. Conquerors (22) - UFOs joins us from my second origin story land of IV.29 for their second foray into Div III.

6. Midwest Bulldogs (25) - Exfactor looks to fight for more than just a relegation series this season, but thanks to their 19 rostered players, they only rank 11th in average salary per player.

5. Coolsville Comets (25) - clubcool is also hoping they can avoid a relegation series yet again this season. Will their top tier 6-10 players boost them?

4. Mos Eisley Imperials (26) - Will Werner Vaughn be enough for them to fight for more than just a first round playoff exit?

3. Tulsa Tomatoes (34) - Tomato runs a lean crew, with only 9 rostered players, which means his top 6-10 is really 6-9, making his second highest ranking in that category even more phenomenal.

2. Lion Rebels (35) - I was not happy to see 84th in the same conference as my Rebels. The BB gods are not on my side!

1. 84th Street Hoopers (37) - The clear-cut winner, according to my sham system, JellyBP is surely going to rue the day I posted this for all to see.

Conference Standings

Big 8
1. 84th Street Hoopers
2. Lion Rebels
3. Midwest Bulldogs
4. Motor City Machines
5. MORNINGZZZ
6. Chicago Trojans
7. Celtic Saints
8. The Windy City Heroes

Great 8
1. Tulsa Tomatoes
2. Mos Eisley Imperials
3. Coolsville Comets
4. Conquerors
5. Ewoks
6. Eugene Register-Guard 2.0
7. Hemet Hooligans
8. Maryland Marauders

Playoff/Relegation Predictions
Great 8 Playoffs
Conquerors vs. Tulsa Tomatoes
Coolsville vs. Imperials

Big 8 Playoffs
Motor City vs. 84th Street
Midwest Bulldogs vs. Lion Rebels

Great 8 Semi-Final Matchup
Coolsville vs. Tulsa

Big 8 Semi-Final Matchup
Lion Rebels vs. 84th Street

Relegation Matchups
Hemet over MORNINGZZZ in three
Ewoks over Celtic in two
Eugene over Trojans in two

Season 66 Championship
84th Street over Tulsa in three.

And so, there you have it! Also, in picking the playoff/relegation games I did absolutely ZERO research and just picked based on what seemed good based on the text on my computer screen. Good luck this season and may the best team prove me wrong!

Last edited by Baine at 9/20/2024 12:47:14 PM

Also, a few points your analysis fails to consider:
- 84th Street is a zombie team
- Mos Eisley Imperials are absolute chokers
- Tulsa Tomatoes GDP constantly
- Hemet Hooligans have a hidden ability that makes them win more than half their games despite a massively negative PD

Thanks for the analysis, regardless of accuracy. Its nice to see some conversation as my last division had about 5 comments over multiple seasons.

I will say that you may have been generous to my Ewoks. I hope to stick around for more than a season, but there are some stout teams for sure. I played this game years ago (I think in the first 5-10 seasons or so). Alot has changed since I stared playing again over the last year.

Good luck to all this season.

Hahaha - I’m sure it will be a blood bath. Also, I’m certain there are at least a BILLION things my analysis is missing.

That’s why I like to do these posts - stir up some unnecessary controversy and spark some conversation.

I really appreciate you breathing some life into the league. It's a lot more fun when people give different views on how the league looks.

I had a few seasons away and restarted with a new roster. I learned a lot during those seasons and am trying to practice a bit more patience. But it's fun to recognize some of the teams I used to compete with, competing in the upper divisions.

In the spirit of the OP (and since I trash talked his preview), my take on the league preview:
The Lesser Conference (Big 8)

84th Street Hoopers:
- Last Season: 3rd place, 1st round PO loss
- Salaries: $451k
- Changes: Will Griffith +$46k, Stanley Moore +$23k
A solid team, but not super varied in tactics (47 of 50 games in Base Offense in the past 2 seasons). Also, is a zombie team (would be a bot if not supporter) and is likely to be running at a deficit due to the updated salaries of his big man trainees and the constraints of a d3 economy.
- Prediction: 5th-7th, ends the season as a zombie but the Mendoza Line for people to be able to stay up in the league.

Lion Rebels
- Last Season: 8th place, II.4
- Salaries: $404k
- Changes: sold Palmer Hooks, $45k 31yo PF at midseason of last season
Made a deep cup run last year while doing just what he needed to do in order to stave off boycotts and bank mad capital in division II. Has a few too many players on the roster to keep them all in top notch gameshape (especially since he doesn't seem to be training). Still, probably deep enough and a solid roster that should dominate the league, unless it gets distracted by the Cup Sirens again.
- Prediction: 1st-2nd, finalist

Midwest Bulldogs
- Last Season: 5th place, won relegation 2-0
- Salaries: $323k
- Changes: Peyton Wilburn +$8k

The odd man out in the Big 8 scrum last season, still finished with 10 wins and a solid performance. Likely to improve his results simply by virtue of the top three teams from last season either being gone, being drastically overhauled, or being a zombie, but also a solid team and ready to break into the playoff run.

- Prediction: 3rd-4th, first round exit

Motor City Machines
- Last Season: Champion, IV.23
- Salaries: $260k
- Changes: Tom Bonds +$25k, Boyd Ferrell +$20k, Francis Willingham +$18k

Rode his big man trainees to a dominant sweep of the IV.23 playoffs, and got the economic help he needed to keep the band together with promotion. All-American and with two young trainees (Ferrell and Willingham) anchored by the slightly less green leadership of Bonds and the veteran presence of Avarell Jones and Hugh Bonilla. A solid candidate to go playoffs-to-playoffs on promotion.

- Prediction: 1st-2nd, semifinals loss

MORNINGZZZ
- Last Season Finish: 4th, 1st round loss
- Salaries: $229k
- Changes: None

Treading water and banking profits definitely helped last season, when the Big 8 was dominated by 3 power house teams. But the lack of training may leave him poorly positioned to step into the void at the top of the conference now. Question will be if he has the money to load up on talent and make a move, or will keep floating at the playoff/relegation cut line

- Prediction: 3rd-4th, 1st round loss

Chicago Trojans
- Last Season: Champion, IV.51
- Salaries: $113k
- Changes: bought Jean Le Guellec $22k SG 28yo for playoffs, Kobi Scherer +$4k, Edouard Bodin +$2k

Made a decisive purchase to complete his domination of IV.51 and promote at the end of his second season. His guard trainees aren't ready for the d3 big time yet though, and he'll need outside help to survive relegations.

- Prediction: 5th-7th

Celtic Saints
- Last Season: IV.45 finalist, 20-2 auto-promo
- Salaries: $82k
- Changes: bought Cory O'Dwyer $14k SG 27yo

Came up short in the finals, but had a good enough record to promote anyway. Freed from the inactivity of a bot conference d4, how will he position for his first season in an active league? Likely to be saved auto-relegation by WCH.

- Prediction: 5th-7th

Windy City Heroes
- Last Season: 1st, semi finals loss
- Salaries: $11k
- Changes: Sold or fired all remaining players

Imploded after the semi-finals loss. Had a sell off of players that may have been a bankruptcy, hasn't logged in since the players were listed.

- Prediction: 8th (bot)

Last edited by Azariah at 9/21/2024 11:01:36 AM

BB-Charles' Blessed Conference (Great 8)

Mos Eisley Imperials:
- Last Season: 4th, 1st round PO loss
- Salaries: $349k
- Changes: sold Reggie Boles ($9.7k PG) and Son Clemons ($11.9k SG), bought Freddie Dickinson ($57.9k SF). Vaughn +$4k, Jialun +$6k, Elkins +$5k
Air mailed RR3 after falling out of top seed contention and got a double whammy of a badly timed injury when trimming salaries. Backed into the playoffs by virtue of a soft schedule to end the season. Moved on from his last tutorial players as now his guard trainees are ready to take on a larger role.
- Prediction: 1st-2nd, finalist

Coolsville Comets
- Last Season: 5th, won relegation 2-0
- Salaries: $324k
- Changes: Winston +$8k, Alley +$3k, Bostic +$3k
Flirted with playoff contention but fell back during the end of season gauntlet. Solidly won relegation, giving his guard trainees more time to come online. Plays varied tactics, but his total salary is a bit of a paper tiger due to the long tail of mid salary players that wind up fighting each other for playing time
- Prediction: 5th-7th

Tulsa Tomatoes
- Last Season: 2nd, semifinals loss
- Salaries: $323k
- Changes: Fabra +$6k, Ludlow +$2k, Kauzonas +$5k
The team that's slightly infamous on BB-USA discord for always GDPing. Leverages those predictions to cause opposing managers to second guess their best offense or pay the GDP piper, but also is very predictable with his own offensive tactics. Has bounced up into d2 a couple of times, but can GDPball work for more than being a d3 playoff team?

- Prediction: 1st-2nd, semifinal loss

Conquerors
- Last Season: Champion, IV.29
- Salaries: $295k
- Changes: Yeung Hoi +$6k, Mize +$19k, Cooke +$5k, Jouffre -$5k, Olariu -$7k
Rode his big men to a dominant 22-0 season in IV.29 and capped it off with a trophy. Salaries are vastly dominated by his top two bigs and some of his older veterans are in an accelerating decline phase, which may limit his team's potential without some roster retooling.

- Prediction: 5th-7th

Ewoks
- Last Season Finish: Champion, IV.12
- Salaries: $274k
- Changes: bought Thad Lam (22yo $53k C), Pouilly +$8k, Katsapopoulos +$8k, Sylvester +$3k, Becerra +$3k
Dominated his d4 league and rode league MVP BJ Clement to a championship sweep. Spent his promotion bonus showing he's ready to contend in d3 with a solid young big man. Will his offense look drastically different with the new addition and the new league?

- Prediction: 3rd-4th, 1st round loss

Eugene Register-Guard 2.0
- Last Season: Champion, IV.51
- Salaries: $263k
- Changes: bought Aidan Girard (20yo $7.9k PG), McHugh +$3.7k, Bean +$2k, Muncy +$2k
Splashed the cash on Rickie Markham last season, then instantly regretted it and posted his L on the press release blog. Skimmed along in II.4 well below the salary floor but still earned a relegation series anyway... where he was vastly overmatched by the 6th place team from the Conference Of Death. Well positioned in this conference to stay more steady for his rebuild process toward eventual NBBA aspirations.

- Prediction: 3rd-4th, 1st round loss

Hemet Hooligans
- Last Season: 3rd, 1st round PO loss
- Salaries: $220k
- Changes: sold Placido Mercado (37yo $82k PG), Greber +$7k, Alderman +$6k, Sample +$7.5k, Sapun -$4k, Bollinger -$13k
Threw it in everyone's faces last season that he finished 4 games over .500 with a -200 PD. But now age has caught up with the team, the star player has left to chase the money bag in Utopia, and he's been reduced to buying trainee rejects from the team that finished below him in the standings last season. Can he avoid paying for his karmatic sins?

- Prediction: 5th-7th


Last edited by Azariah at 9/21/2024 11:04:25 AM