Could a clever, dedicated manager arrive at a reasonable approximation of an answer using the information the game already provides?
"There's also a maximum advantage an offensive player can have over a defender."
The doc level at the time of the injury does impact the initial injury (higher level means more of a chance it is only for the game).The actual length of an injury is not determined at the beginning (only the estimated length). Recovery/treatment happens every daily update (using your current staff/infrastructure of that day).