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Injuries

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From: testudo

This Post:
11
323413.10 in reply to 323413.9
Date: 4/30/2024 11:50:55 AM
Isca Centurions
EBBL
Overall Posts Rated:
329329
Second Team:
Dartmoor Pumas
If it's Nuggets/Celtics game 7 and a normal starter like Michael Porter Jr goes down early in the 2Q, the points spread only moves by 1-2 pts. If a starter goes down in BB the theoretical line moves a lot more than that, in a lot of cases I'd guess 10+ pts, due to the nature of how rosters are built.


From: testudo

This Post:
00
323413.12 in reply to 323413.11
Date: 5/1/2024 7:25:40 AM
Isca Centurions
EBBL
Overall Posts Rated:
329329
Second Team:
Dartmoor Pumas
- both numbers (1-2 pts IRL and 10+ pts in BB) are made up with no data to back them up (not your fault, these data don't exist)


The real data does due to betting markets. I'd have to double check but I believe an elite player tends to move the betting line about 6pts, an all-star about 3pts, so an average starter is probably 1pt (this is all pre-game injury).

The BB data is just a guess, but from experience it's almost certainly a much larger impact than those numbers.

From: Korenje

This Post:
00
323413.13 in reply to 323413.12
Date: 5/1/2024 10:15:06 AM
KK Ljubljana 78
II.2
Overall Posts Rated:
3737
Second Team:
BC Utopia 78
- both numbers (1-2 pts IRL and 10+ pts in BB) are made up with no data to back them up (not your fault, these data don't exist)


The real data does due to betting markets. I'd have to double check but I believe an elite player tends to move the betting line about 6pts, an all-star about 3pts, so an average starter is probably 1pt (this is all pre-game injury).

The BB data is just a guess, but from experience it's almost certainly a much larger impact than those numbers.


I think on/off numbers would be quite accurate. For Nikola Jokić those would be 20 in 23/24 and 21.9 in 22/23. You could run several pickup games to get on/off for BB players but I doubt they're anywhere near those!